News

Crude climbs as market digests OPEC hike and shale slowdown risks

Posted on: May 07 2025

This content is marketing material

Key points:

  • OPEC+ raises output again: Saudi-led supply boost aims to enforce compliance and pressure high-cost rivals

  • U.S. shale feels the pinch: Sub-$60 WTI threatens profitability, with top producers cutting spending and signs that production growth is stalling.

  • Compliance and sanctions in focus: Overproduction by Iraq, Kazakhstan, and UAE, plus rising Iranian and Venezuelan output remains a challenge for OPEC+

  • Associated gas at risk: Lower shale output could drag down U.S. natural gas supply, just as global demand for cleaner energy sources rises.

Crude prices climb for a second consecutive day, fully reversing Monday’s sharp decline, which was triggered by an OPEC+ announcement to increase supply more aggressively than expected for a second straight month. The move, largely driven by Saudi Arabia, appears to be a calculated response to persistent non-compliance within the group—particularly from Kazakhstan—and also aligns with former President Trump’s push for lower oil prices. Over time, OPEC could benefit from this strategy through increased market share, as sustained low prices may challenge the economic viability of higher-cost producers.

Part of the rebound in crude prices stems from the fact that last week's market already priced in the likelihood of another production hike. This occurred even as broader risk sentiment improved amid growing optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations. As seen in the WTI crude chart, the most recent selloff halted just above the early April “Liberation Day” low of USD 55 per barrel. Strong technical resistance remains in place ten dollars higher at USD 65 per barrel.

While the supply increase was somewhat anticipated, prices have found support in concerns that higher-cost producers may struggle to sustain output—particularly in the U.S., where WTI has fallen below USD 60 per barrel. This level is often cited as a profitability threshold; below it, further production expansion becomes economically unviable. However, with Saudi Arabia signaling openness to adding even more supply, any sustained upward momentum in prices could be limited. Additional pressure comes from the uncertain demand outlook, especially if U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, threatening consumption in the world’s two largest energy markets.

 

WTI Crude Oil, first month cont. - Source: Saxo

OPEC+ supply strategy and compliance issues

With the latest planned addition of 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) in June, the OPEC+ alliance will already have unwound more than 40% of the 2.2 million b/d in production cuts implemented between 2022 and August 2023. However, the group’s credibility has been undermined by widespread quota violations. Recent compliance data suggests cumulative overproduction of around 800,000 b/d, with Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE cited as the main culprits.

Complicating the picture further, Iran and Venezuela—both under U.S. sanctions and exempt from OPEC+ quotas—have collectively increased their output by over 1 million b/d since September 2022. If the U.S., under renewed focus from President Trump, manages to enforce stricter sanctions on these two nations and if compliance within OPEC+ improves, the actual net increase in global supply could be far smaller than market fears suggest. Combined with a potential output decline from high-cost producers, this scenario could help rebalance the market more quickly than expected.

OPEC production with baselines

U.S. production plateau and associated gas risks

U.S. oil production growth is showing signs of fatigue. Two major shale operators have announced spending cuts in response to the price downturn, raising concerns that American output may have already peaked. Sub-$60 WTI prices put many shale operations at risk of becoming unprofitable, threatening future investment, production, and ultimately, market share—particularly to lower-cost OPEC+ producers.

Annualized U.S. oil production growth has slowed to 2.8%, with shale oil—the source of roughly three-quarters of total U.S. output—growing at less than 2%. If WTI prices remain below USD 60 for an extended period, a production rollover becomes increasingly likely, opening the door for rival producers to fill the gap.

It's also important to consider the knock-on effect on natural gas. More than one-third of total U.S. natural gas production comes from associated gas—a byproduct of crude oil extraction—especially from major shale plays like the Permian Basin in Texas and southeastern New Mexico. A downturn in oil output from these fields would likely lead to a decline in associated gas production as well. This comes at a time when demand for natural gas is expected to rise substantially, both in the U.S. and globally, as utilities shift toward cleaner power generation sources.

US crude oil annualised production change
WTI Crude Oil: Five-year historical charts provided for compliance purposes. Source: Saxo

Recent commodity articles:

5 May 2025: COT Report: Dollar-selling persists; Crude length trimmed ahead of OPEC output hike 1 May 2025: Gold corrects sharply from record highs as Chinese demand pauses 29 April 2025: Copper navigates energy transition supply shocks and market turmoil 28 April 2025: COT Report: Continued gold selling; USD weakness drives record JPY long 25 April 2025: Commodities weekly Energy slump overshadows strength in gold and agriculture 23 April 2025: Blowout top leaves Gold in consolidation mode 22 April 2025: Commodities return Why allocation matters 16 April 2025: Whats next as gold hits our USD 3300 target 15 April 2025: COT Reports show hedge funds racing to cash post-Liberation Day 11 April 2025: Commodities weekly As chaos reigns whats next for markets 10 April 2025: YouTube Interview: Gold, silver, copper, oil - prices, supply, demand in 2025 8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook 8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook 7 April 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - April 7 2025 4 April 2025: Commodities weekly Tariff-led recession pain triggers sharp reversal 3 April 2025: Tariff-related recession fears ignite widespread commodities selloff 2 April 2025: Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty 31 Mch 2025: COT Report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities 26 Mch 2025: Commodities show strength in Q1, led by a select few 25 Mch 2025: Crude oil Sanctions threat counters tariff-driven demand worries 24 Mch 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 24 March 2025 21 Mch 2025: Commodities weekly: High-flying precious metal sees profit taking 19 Mch 2025: Has the gold express already left the station? 17 Mch 2025: COT Report: Silver and copper stands out in week of energy weakness 14 Mch 2025: Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows 12 Mch 2025: Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand 11 Mch 2025: Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets 10 Mch 2025: COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs 7 Mch 2025: Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine 5 Mch 2025: Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market 4 Mch 2025: Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold 3 Mch 2025: COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low Podcasts that include commodities focus: 6 May 2025: Bears hang in at key levels as Palantir rides the retail whirlwind 23 April 2025: Trump going soft on tariffs versus the direction of travel. 11 April 2025: US and China are slipping into an economic war 4 April 2025: Markets melts down as recession risks go global 1 April 2025: Bracing for Liberation Day 25 Mch 2025: Did Trump just blink? 18 Mch 2025: US market found support, but how durable will it be? 14 Mch 2025: Is silver set to shoot the lights out? 10 Mch 2025: US un-exceptionalism is the theme 7 Mch 2025: US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station 4 March 2025: Are we on the verge of a big whoosh?

Ole HansenHead of Commodity StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Commodities Inflation Federal Reserve ETF Trump Version 2 - Traders Crude Oil Gas Oil Heating Oil Oil and Gas Oil OPEC China USA
JPY tumbles on dovish BoJ surprise.

Posted on: May 02 2025

A dovish Bank of Japan and resurging global risk sentiment have pushed the JPY to new local lows, though JPY support may arrive soon as yields remain low.

Note: This is marketing material.

The Bank of Japan surprised with dovish guidance as the bank gave itself a leisurely extra year – fiscal year 2027 – to rein in inflation to the 2% target. This sank the JPY across the board. Stale JPY longs, especially in the form of heavy USDJPY short positioning, and the latest blast higher in risk sentiment added to the headwinds for the JPY. In particular, the strong Microsoft and Meta Platforms earnings after the close of trading yesterday are challenging the “end of US exceptionalism” narrative and the idea that AI is losing momentum as both companies remain committed to vast spending on AI data centers, with Meta even announcing a significant expansion in its AI spending commitments. Still, while USDJPY rose and remained above the local resistance around 144.00, the EURUSD dip below to new two-week lows below 1.1300 was quickly gathered up in the European session today.

Chart: USDJPY USDJPY has backed up above local resistance near 144.00 after the dovish Bank of Japan surprise overnight, which was perhaps doubly surprising given the geopolitical backdrop that has been behind a considerable dose of the JPY’s gains against the greenback as most, including this author, believe that Japan’s political leadership would be happy to see the JPY on a strengthening path against the US dollar while trade negotiations with the US are ongoing. We have taken a stab recently at identifying resistance levels, with 145.00 the first significant line in the sand, followed by the 146.50 prior major low from March. Given falling US 10-year yields that traditionally correlate quite closely with the USDJPY exchange rate and given the collapsing oil prices that have implications for inflation and therefore bond yields and Fed easing, I still expect this rally to fade sooner rather than later. A quick reversal here well back below 144.00, perhaps after a soft US jobs report tomorrow, would help the bearish case. In any case, today’s 144.74 high up to 146.50 is the last gasp short-term resistance zone for the bears, with 150.00-151.62 probably the more existential longer term resistance. Does the bear market reassert between now and the end of trading Friday or will this consolidation bedevil the bears for weeks longer?

Source: Saxo

 

Looking ahead, at this point it is most interesting to watch for anything that might change the narrative that has driven the profound rally off the lows in risk sentiment. Major US earnings reports remain important, especially in the AI space, but also on the impact from US tariffs. For example, I wonder if the Amazon.com and Apple earnings can provide the same kind of positive momentum as Microsoft and Meta did.

While Amazon’s retail business drives less than half of its income, that business risks the most disruption among the Mag7 stocks directly from the Trump tariffs. Some 70% of the products it ships are sourced from China, with much of its growth in third-party sellers coming from there. Most of these items will not be in the carveouts (for laptops, TV's, etc.) for the 145% tariffs. Apple, meanwhile, may be seeing demand impacts on its business in China if there is a popular backlash there against US products, as well as added costs as it seeks to accelerate the shift in production supply chains elsewhere – especially to India. Then there are the incoming US economic data through the US jobs report tomorrow and the US April ISM Services report on Monday if these offer any color on recession risks. The US April ADP payroll change was a weak +55k yesterday, even if it is a poor predictor of the nonfarm payrolls change number tomorrow.

Of course, headline risk in the opposite direction remains if a trade deal breakthrough is announced with India and perhaps Japan as well that looks easy in its terms, and especially if there is a strong hint of US-China détente and a plan to sit down at the negotiating table. At these levels, however, a good portion of these kinds of developments look like they’re already in the price.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The JPY trending reading is turning downright negative now, although this remains mostly the erasure of its long trending status rather than an indicator of a fresh broad bear trend in the making. Elsewhere, gold has lost altitude.

 

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

GBPJPY is set to turn to a positive trend on today close if it fails to sell off again, but the JPY crosses aren’t really in bull mode yet. As noted in my Tuesday update, EURJPY is an interesting one to watch in the 164-165 zone, with a massive level at the twice touched 164.20. In today’s trade, the quick erasing of the EURUSD dip is a near-term boost for the bulls, that this higher support area near 1.1300 will hold.

 

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group
John J. HardyGlobal Head of Macro StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY
Top 3 trade ideas for 29 April 2025

Posted on: Apr 30 2025

The overview is based on trade ideas provided by the Acuity Trading service. RoboForex analysts only select ideas from those available on the platform and do not develop them independently. Please note that trading in financial markets involves high risks, and the ideas presented are not investment recommendations.

Trade ideas for XAUUSD, GBPUSD, and EURJPY are available today. The ideas expire on 30 April 2025 at 8:00 AM.

Today’s trade ideas

Table of contents

  1. XAUUSD trade idea
  2. GBPUSD trade idea
  3. EURJPY trade idea

XAUUSD trade idea

The main trend for XAUUSD remains upward. A corrective decline is expected today; however, signs of sellers’ exhaustion suggest that the downside potential will be limited. The preferred tactic remains buying on pullbacks in anticipation of a bullish impulse recovery. Today’s trade idea for XAUUSD suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

News sentiment indicates a slight dominance of negative expectations for XAUUSD – 54% vs 46%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 16,000 pips, and 17,500 pips at the second, while potential losses are limited to 4,000 pips.

XAUUSD trade idea for 29 April 2025

Trading plan

  • Entry Point: 3,225.00
  • Target 1: 3,385.00
  • Target 2: 3,400.00
  • Stop-Loss: 3,185.00
Explore More Trade Ideas

GBPUSD trade idea

The GBPUSD currency pair maintains its bullish momentum, with buyers breaking above a key resistance level. However, sellers became more active during the Asian session, increasing short-term pressure on the price. Despite the potential risk of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming, buying on corrections remains the preferred strategy. Today’s trade idea for GBPUSD suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

News sentiment for GBPUSD shows moderate dominance of negative expectations – 55% vs 45%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 165 pips, and 175 pips at the second, with possible losses limited to 45 pips.

GBPUSD trade idea for 29 April 2025

Trading plan

  • Entry Point: 1.3255
  • Target 1: 1.3420
  • Target 2: 1.3430
  • Stop-Loss: 1.3210
Explore More Trade Ideas

EURJPY trade idea

The EURJPY currency pair follows a steady uptrend with no signs of its completion yet. Nevertheless, a short-term correction remains possible. A breakout above the key level at 162.50 will confirm a further upward movement targeting 164.00. Today’s trade idea for EURJPY is to place a pending Buy Limit order.

News sentiment shows a moderate dominance of pessimistic expectations for EURJPY – 52% vs 48%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 200 pips, and 225 pips at the second, with potential losses capped at 100 pips.

EURJPY trade idea for 29 April 2025

Trading plan

  • Entry Point: 161.75
  • Target 1: 163.75
  • Target 2: 164.00
  • Stop-Loss: 160.75
Explore More Trade Ideas
Boeing emerges from the dip: investors rally as financials improve. The outlook for the stock is positive

Posted on: Apr 29 2025

Investors are snapping up shares of Boeing Company. A breach of the resistance level at 190 USD would increase the likelihood of BA’s prices rising to 260 USD.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) Q1 2025 earnings report exceeded expectations. Revenue reached 19.5 billion USD, an 18% increase compared to last year, while the adjusted loss per share came in lower than forecast at 0.49 USD, compared to the expected 1.24 USD. The company delivered 130 commercial aircraft, up from 83 a year earlier, including 67 units of 737 MAX jets, and confirmed plans to increase 737 production to 38 aircraft per month by year-end. Additionally, Boeing announced the sale of its Digital Aviation Solutions division for 10.55 billion USD to strengthen its balance sheet. Investors received the improved financial performance positively, with the stock price rising by more than 10% following the report’s release.

This article examines The Boeing Company, lists the sources of its revenues, and summarises its performance over the 2024 calendar year and Q1 2025. It also offers a technical analysis of BA, which serves as the basis for the Boeing stock price forecast for 2025.

About The Boeing Company

The Boeing Company is one of the world’s largest aerospace and defence firms. It was founded on 15 July 1916 by William Boeing in Seattle, Washington. The company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, and selling commercial aircraft, military equipment, satellites, missile systems and space technology. Additionally, Boeing offers both support services and financial solutions.

Boeing’s IPO took place in 1962, and the company is listed on the NYSE under the ticker BA.

Image of The Boeing Company name

The Boeing Company’s key revenue streams

The Boeing Company generates revenue from the following sources:

  • Commercial Airplanes (BCA): the manufacture and sale of commercial airliners, including the 737, 767, 777 and 787 Dreamliner models. This is the company’s largest segment by revenue, but also the most sensitive to market demand fluctuations, regulatory scrutiny, and technical risks. Boeing is actively working to regain ground following the earlier suspension of 737 MAX deliveries
  • Defense, Space & Security (BDS): covers military aircraft, drones, satellite systems, missiles and equipment for NASA. This segment delivers stable revenues through long-term contracts with the US government and allied nations
  • Global Services (BGS): aftermarket services, maintenance, personnel training, spare parts supply, digital solutions, and logistics. This division supports Boeing’s customer base in both civil and defence sectors, generating steady profits and high margins
  • Boeing Capital Corporation (BCC): financial services, including leasing and customer financing. This segment helps Boeing clients fund aircraft purchases, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty

The Boeing Company’s financial position and key risk factors

Boeing ended 2024 with revenues of 66.5 billion USD, down 14% from the previous year. Its net loss reached 11.8 billion USD, significantly higher than the 2.2 billion USD loss recorded in 2023. Negative operating cash flow totalled 12.1 billion USD, underscoring severe financial strain. Despite this, the company’s order backlog remains substantial – around 521 billion USD, including more than 5,500 commercial aircraft orders – which signals sustained long-term demand.

A series of negative factors weighed on Boeing’s 2024 financial performance. Chief among them was a strike by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), which halted production of the 737, 767, and 777/777X models, significantly impacting delivery volumes. The company also incurred substantial restructuring costs, including staff reductions and internal restructuring. In the defence segment, additional expenses across several contracts further reduced profitability and eroded margins in this division.

At the end of 2024, Boeing held approximately 26.3 billion USD in cash and marketable securities. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow pose a risk to the company’s financial stability. Should these figures persist, they could affect Boeing’s credit ratings and its ability to fund future programs.

Despite the challenging situation, Boeing’s management is taking active steps to stabilise operations. Production of key aircraft models resumed after the strike ended. Efforts are underway to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency. Particular focus is being placed on enhancing quality control and ensuring product safety – critical factors in regaining the trust of both customers and aviation regulators.

At the same time, Boeing’s large order book, government contracts and the potential recovery of its commercial division offer a foundation for a gradual return to stability.

The Boeing Company Q1 2025 financial results

On April 23, The Boeing Company published its Q1 2025 earnings report, which exceeded analysts’ expectations. Below are the key figures:

  • Total revenue: 19.49 billion USD (+18%)
  • Loss: 31 million USD (compared to 355 million USD in Q1 2024)
  • Loss per share: 0.49 USD (compared to 1.13 USD in Q1 2024)
  • Operating margin: 2.4% (compared to -0.5% in Q1 2024)
  • Free cash flow: -2.3 billion USD (compared to -3.9 billion USD in Q1 2024)
  • Aircraft deliveries: 130 units (+57%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Aircraft sales revenue: 16.14 billion USD (+21%)
  • Service revenue: 3.34 billion USD (+1%)
  • Commercial Airplanes: 8.14 billion USD (+75%)
  • Defense, Space & Security: 6.26 billion USD (-9%)
  • Global Services: 5.06 billion USD (no change)

Boeing’s Q1 2025 report reflects cautious optimism regarding the recovery of the aviation giant. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of 0.49 USD, significantly better than analysts’ expectations of a loss of 1.24 USD, highlighting the effectiveness of the measures introduced by CEO Kelly Ortberg.

The substantial 57% year-on-year increase in commercial aircraft deliveries, including the 737 MAX, underscores operational resilience despite the challenges faced in 2024, such as strikes and regulatory issues. The 737 MAX program is gradually increasing production rates, with plans to reach 38 aircraft per month by year-end.

The order book has grown to 545 billion USD, covering over 5,600 aircraft, providing a solid foundation for future revenue. Regarding cash flow, Boeing showed a smaller outflow than expected, and Ortberg’s forecast of positive cash flow in Q2 2025 reflects ambitious goals. The sale of its Jeppesen division to Thoma Bravo for 10.55 billion USD demonstrates a strategic approach to asset optimisation and strengthening the financial position.

Despite this progress, the company still faces several challenges. The trade tensions between the US and China have led Chinese airlines to suspend the acceptance of Boeing aircraft, forcing the company to redirect deliveries to other markets. Additionally, a court case is expected in June regarding allegations that Boeing committed fraud against the US government related to the 737 MAX crashes.

Following the earnings release, Boeing’s stock rose by 6%, although it has fallen by 9% since the beginning of the year due to regulatory and geopolitical factors. Given Boeing’s market leadership and stable defence contracts, the current share price could present an opportunity for investors willing to take on risk. FAA restrictions on 737 MAX production and supply chain issues remain, but progress in stabilising production suggests these are temporary challenges.

Ortberg’s ability to implement internal reforms and restore investor confidence remains a key factor. If the strategy is successfully executed and external risks are minimised, Boeing’s stock could become an attractive asset for investors.

Expert forecasts for The Boeing Company shares

  • Barchart: 17 of 25 analysts rated Boeing shares as a Strong Buy, one as a Moderate Buy, six as a Hold, and one as a Strong Sell. The high price target is 240 USD, while the low is 111 USD
  • MarketBeat: 16 out of 23 specialists issued a Buy rating for the shares, six gave a Hold recommendation, and one gave a Sell. The high price target is 240 USD, and the low is 111 USD
  • TipRanks: 13 out of 19 respondents gave the shares a Buy rating, five recommended Hold, and one recommended Sell. The high price target is 240 USD, while the low is 111 USD
  • Stock Analysis: out of 18 experts, eight rated the shares as a Strong Buy, five as a Buy, four as a Hold, and one as a Sell. The high price target is 240 USD, while the low is 111 USD
Expert forecasts for The Boeing Company stock for 2025

The Boeing Company stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly timeframe, the MACD indicator continues to show convergence, signalling a potential rise in Boeing’s share price, which is approaching resistance at 190 USD. Based on the current performance of The Boeing Company, the possible movements in 2025 are as follows:

The base case forecast for BA shares suggests a breakout above the resistance at 190 USD, followed by a rise towards the resistance line at 260 USD.

As an alternative scenario, the forecast for BA stock suggests a breakout below the trendline at 150 USD, which could result in the share price falling to 115 USD.

The Boeing Company stock analysis and forecast for 2025
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 25 Apr: The USD closes the day higher but mixed for week.

Posted on: Apr 26 2025

  • US stocks end the week with a four day win streak
  • Feds Semi-annu Anderson al survey: Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk
  • What are the key economic events on the calendar next week
  • Earnings calendar: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald's, Starbucks, Coca-Cola
  • Crude oil futures settle at $63.02
  • EU Comm. Dombrovski: Reiterates that EU willing to reach mutually agreeable solution w/ US
  • Trump: Will not drop China tariffs unless they give us something
  • Trump: We will be reasonable on tariffs
  • European equity close: Solid gains to cap a sizzling week
  • Kremlin: US envoy Witkoff and Putin met for 3-hours. Talks were constructive
  • BOE Greene: we are not sure if weakness in UK economy is demand or supply
  • University of Michigan final sentiment for April 52.2 versus 50.8
  • USTR: Greer: It is constantly engaged w/Japan & other countries in reciprocal trade talks
  • Canada retail sales for February -0.4% versus -0.4% estimate
  • Chinese Embassy: US and China are not having any talks on tariffs
  • The USD is higher to start the new trading day. What are the charts telling traders?
  • Forexlive European FX news wrap: Markets less optimistic after Trump's interview with Time

The markets were not all that giddy about the Time Magazine interview with Pres Trump. The article addressed several key international and economic issues.

  • He expressed no or little concern about the bond market turmoil earlier in April, stating confidence in his economic direction.
  • On foreign policy, he asserted that Crimea would remain with Russia and maintained that peace is possible even with Vladimir Putin in power
  • When asked about potential U.S. involvement if Israel goes to war with Iran, he clarified he didn’t commit to staying out.
  • He confirmed that China’s President Xi had contacted him
  • He also emphasized that high tariffs—i.e. 20% to 50%—are part of a long-term strategy to bolster the U.S. economy, calling such a scenario a “total victory.”
  • Trump noted upcoming trade deal announcements and reiterated his openness to taxing millionaires.
  • He also entertained the oft-mentioned expansionist ideas such as acquiring the Panama Canal, Greenland, and making Canada the 51st U.S. state.

Although stocks were lower to start the trading day, they did ease into the open and moved into positive territory in the morning session.

The Michigan consumer sentiment index was a positive at least relative to the preliminary data, although still near the lowest levels going back to at least 2009. The inflation readings were also elevated with one-year inflation at 6.5%, but at least it was lower than the 6.7% preliminary.

That helped to keep the stocks in positive territory. As Pres. Trump said today the market seem to be getting used to the tariffs (until there used to or the impact from inflation/supply shocks make the markets nervous again). Nevertheless, today was the fourth consecutive day higher in major US stock indices. The NASDAQ index after losing over -2.5% clawed back those declines and added 6.7% more for the week. The S&P index closed higher by 4.59% for the trading week after also climbing by about -2.5% on Monday.

For the trading day:

  • Dow industrial average rose 0.05%
  • S&P index rose 0.74%
  • NASDAQ index rose 1.26%

European shares also advanced today and for the week:

  • German DAX rose 0.81% for the day, and 4.89% for the week.
  • UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.09% for the day and 1.69% for the week
  • CAC rose 0.45% for the day and 3.44% for the week.
  • Spain's Ibex rose 1.33% for the day and 3.39% for the week
  • Italy's FTSE MIB rose 1.47 for the day and 3.8% for the week

In the US debt market, yields were lower today, and closed lower for the week as well:

  • 2-year yield 3.756%, -3.5 basis points. For the week the yield fell -4.4 basis points.
  • 5-year yield 3.875%, -5.2 basis points. For the week the yield fell -6.7 basis points.
  • 10 year yield 4.250%, -5.4 basis points. For the week, the yield fell -8.0 basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.716%, -4.9 basis points. For the week the yield fell -9.0 basis points

The 2 – 10 year spread reached its highest level since January 2022 this week rising to 64.8 basis points, but is back down to 50.1 basis points at the end of the week.

The 2-30 year spread also reached the highest level going back to January 2022 at 113 basis points, but is closing at 96.2 basis points.

The US dollar is ending the day higher versus all the major currencies. Looking at the changes:

  • EUR, +0.25%
  • JPY +0.79%
  • GBP +0.24%
  • CHF +0.12%
  • CAD +0.04%
  • AUD +0.20%
  • NZD +0.60%

For the trading week,, the greenback was mixed with gains versus the EUR, JPY, CHF and losses vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The USD was near unchanged vs the CAD. A snapshot of the week changes shows:

  • EUR +0.26%
  • GBP -0.16%
  • JPY +1.12%
  • CHF +1.44%
  • CAD unchanged
  • AUD -0.35%
  • NZD -0.54%
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.