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DE 40 forecast: the index maintains its upward trajectory, rising above 20,300.0

Posted on: Jul 02 2025

This week, the DE 40 stock index continues to rise, steadily remaining above the psychologically important level of 20,000.0. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: Germany’s Consumer Price Index for June stood at 0.0%
  • Market impact: zero inflation eases concerns over potential ECB monetary tightening and supports investor sentiment in the equity market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The actual Consumer Price Index reading for June was 0.0%, below the forecast of 0.2% and the previous figure of 0.1%. Zero inflation indicates price stabilisation, suggesting an easing of inflationary pressure. Stable prices positively influence consumer purchasing power, supporting retail and service companies.

Consumer price stabilisation in Germany creates positive expectations in the stock market, supporting both the consumer and industrial sectors. The financial sector may experience mixed impacts due to the lack of prospects for rising interest rates.

DE 40 technical analysis

Resistance for the DE 40 index has formed at 24,110.0. A new support level has been set at 23,465.0. The previous resistance was broken with strong momentum, indicating continuation of the previous medium-term uptrend. There is a very high potential for a new all-time high.

Scenarios for the DE 40 index price forecast:

  • Pessimistic scenario for DE 40: if the support level at 23,465.0 is breached, prices may fall to 22,860.0
  • Optimistic scenario for DE 40: if the resistance level at 24,110.0 is broken, prices may rise to 24,700.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 1 July 2025

Summary

The CPI slowdown suggests that the ECB will continue to ease its monetary policy. This positively affects equity market demand from investors. The DE 40 stock index remains in an uptrend and aims to reach a new all-time high. The next growth target may be 24,700.0, which would become the new historical maximum.

BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10)

Posted on: Jul 01 2025

BOJ Tankan Q2 2025:

Bank of Japan Tankan Survey – June 2025 Highlights

Business Conditions (Actual vs Reuters Poll):

  • Large Manufacturers (June): +13 (forecast: +10). +13 is the highest since December last year.

  • Large Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +12 (forecast: +9)

  • Large Non-Manufacturers (June): +34 (forecast: +34) +34 is the lowest since December last year

  • Large Non-Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +27 (forecast: +29)

  • Small Manufacturers (June): +1 (forecast: -1)

  • Small Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): -2 (forecast: -3)

  • Small Non-Manufacturers (June): +15 (forecast: +15)

  • Small Non-Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +9 (forecast: +9)

Currency Assumptions (FY2025/26):

  • All Firms – Euro: ¥157.79

  • All Firms – USD: ¥145.72

  • Large Manufacturers – USD: ¥145.87

Other Indicators:

  • All Firms Employment Index (June): -35

  • All Firms Financial Conditions Index (June): +11 (vs March: +10)

  • Large Manufacturers' Production Capacity Index (June): +2 (vs March: +3)

  • Recurring Profits – Large Manufacturers (FY2025/26): -8.4%

  • Capex Outlook (FY2025/26):

    • Large Firms: +11.5% (forecast: +10.0%)

    • Small Firms: -5.6% (forecast: -7.2%)

BoJ Tankan – Corporate Price Expectations (June 2025):

  • 1-Year Inflation Outlook: Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% over the next year (previous survey: +2.5%)

  • 3-Year Inflation Outlook: Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% annually over the next three years (unchanged from previous survey)

  • 5-Year Inflation Outlook: Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.3% annually over the next five years (unchanged from previous survey)

more to come

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Earlier preview:

  • The Bank of Japan Tankan report is due soon, here are the Reuters results as a preview

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.