News

Options Brief - Cool CPI, SK Hynix options debut - 15 July 2026

Posted on: Jul 16 2026

A far softer June CPI knocked back rate-hike bets, crushed one-day VIX by nearly 28% and handed the tape to the AI and memory trade. Options on SK Hynix's newly US-listed ADR opened with about 218,500 contracts, most of it short-dated and priced near 172% implied volatility, while the ADR trades at a 50% premium to its Seoul shares. The brief covers the front-of-curve vol reset, a dispersion market where single names ignore the index, and what to watch in a brand-new options listing.

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL  |  VIX 16.50  |  TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: 145.13  |  FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.45

  • Event vol collapsed once CPI cleared. A far softer June CPI knocked back rate-hike bets, and one-day VIX1D fell 27.75% to 10.57 as the event passed, while the rest of the curve held contango out to VIX1Y at 23.28. Spot VIX eased 3.85% to 16.50.
  • Dispersion, not direction. Three-month implied correlation COR3M dropped 8.49% to 7.65, near cycle lows, while the dispersion index (DSPX) rose to 47.37. SK Hynix, Samsung and the US chip names ran hard while the broad index barely moved.
  • The memory trade took over. SK Hynix's newly listed US options and a 27% ADR jump helped push Korea's Kospi up about 8% into a buy-side circuit breaker, and ASML raised its full-year sales outlook for the second time this year.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 14 July 2026 close, approx. 06:00 CET, futures and Asian markets live into Wednesday. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

June CPI landed far softer than feared on Tuesday, with headline prices falling 0.4% on the month and easing to 3.5% year on year and core flat at 2.6%, which knocked back fast-rising rate-hike bets and lifted Wall Street's AI and chip complex. This morning the memory trade took over: SK Hynix's newly listed US options and a 27% jump in its ADR helped push the Kospi up roughly 8% into a buy-side circuit breaker, while ASML raised its full-year sales outlook for the second time this year.

Full macro rundown in Saxo's Market Quick Take - Chips reclaim the lead - 15 July 2026.

Market snapshot, Tuesday 14 July 2026 close

  • US (Tuesday 14 July close): the S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,543.59 and the Nasdaq 100 added 1.10%, led by Nvidia (+4.06% to 211.80), Alphabet (+2.0%) and the semis (SMH +2.5%), while the Dow finished essentially flat. Breadth was thin: the S&P equal-weight index slipped 0.38% and healthcare (XLV) fell 1.9%.
  • Asia (Wednesday 15 July ~06:00 CET): the Kospi surged about 8% to 7,413 and tripped a buy-side circuit breaker, powered by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while the Hang Seng added 1.5%.
  • Europe (Wednesday 15 July open): the Stoxx 600 rose 0.2% and the AEX added 0.4%, with ASML in focus after its outlook raise.
  • Commodities and rates: WTI held near USD 80 and Brent near USD 86, gold traded near USD 4,038, and the US 10-year yield sat near 4.60% with the 2-year near 4.20%.
  • Market regime (rules-based read): Low-volatility bull, VIX 16.5, 20-day realised volatility about 12.4% and falling, S&P 500 roughly 1.3% above its 50-day moving average. This multi-week signal lags the single-name action now under way.

Equity and vol data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 14 July 2026 close and Wednesday pre-market. Costs and charges apply to ETF trades; see Saxo pricing for full details. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 14 July, Tuesday's positioning and not today's price action. This flow pre-dates this morning's SK Hynix and ASML moves, so it describes how desks leaned into the close, not how the market is trading now.

Single-name flow leaned bullish only in the semiconductor complex, where confirmed call demand across the chip names dominated the tape, the kind of buying that can leave dealers short upside calls and mechanically supportive on strength. Mega-cap tech premium looked heavily put-weighted on the surface, but it was skewed by deep in-the-money, longer-dated structures rather than fresh downside bets, so the bearish read there is weak. Broad index and ETF flow was close to balanced and dominated by mid-market prints and longer-dated hedges, which reads as positioning and roll activity rather than a directional macro view, leaving dealers roughly two-sided at the index level. Read together, desks leaned modestly bullish on semis while keeping index-level conviction low.

What to watch today: ASML's earnings call and the read-through to the AI and memory chain after the outlook raise, plus any follow-through in SK Hynix now that its options are live, ahead of TSMC's report on Thursday.

Volatility surface - 15 July 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

  • VIX spot 16.50 (-3.85%)
  • VIX1D 10.57 (-27.75%) · VIX9D 13.46 (-11.04%)
  • VIX3M 19.30 (-1.73%) · VIX6M 21.52 (-0.78%) · VIX1Y 23.28 (-0.60%), contango out to one year, with the front crushed hardest as VIX1D marked the passing of the CPI event

VIX futures

  • Front-month VIX futures 18.45, above a spot VIX of 16.50
  • Second-month VIX futures 19.45, front-to-second ratio 0.945, a steady contango

Skew and correlation

  • CBOE SKEW 145.13 (-0.38%), the premium for out-of-the-money downside protection, range-bound
  • COR3M 7.65 (-8.49%), three-month implied correlation, near cycle lows
  • DSPX 47.37 (+1.07%), the S&P 500 dispersion index, firming. Equity put/call ratio 0.77, index put/call 1.01

Cross-asset volatility

  • OVX 59.89 (-0.60%), oil volatility running near 3.6x the VIX
  • MOVE 75.03 (-3.53%), the Treasury gauge, easing
  • GVZ 25.02 (-7.09%) · VXN 26.28 (-3.74%) · RVX 20.67 (-6.60%) · VVIX 93.53 (-1.84%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 14 July 2026 close.

What the market is pricing

  • Session implied move. With VIX1D back at 10.57, the one-day vol surface implies a move of only about 0.65%, near 50 S&P points, for the current session. The market is pricing today's calendar as light now that CPI is behind it.
  • Correlation read. COR3M near cycle lows with the dispersion index rising says the market is paying up for single-stock movement while pricing the index calmer. A tape where SK Hynix and Samsung jump 6% to 12% while the S&P adds 0.4% is that bet playing out in the open.
  • Tail risk signal. SKEW near 145 and VVIX eased to 93.53, so even with the melt-up in chips the market is not paying up for downside protection. What is priced here is continuation risk in single names, not an index-level break.
  • Term structure and premium. Front and second-month VIX futures sit above spot in contango, and 20-day realised vol at 12.4% is running below implied, so in our view the market is embedding a calmer index than options imply, a backdrop that can favour premium sellers. The catch is dispersion: the priced-in calm is an index-level story, and the real movement is in single names. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

This week: the SK Hynix options debut, in focus

The topic of the day is a brand-new US options market on the world's hottest memory name. SK Hynix's American depositary receipts priced at USD 149 on 9 July and raised USD 26.5bn, the largest US share sale ever by a foreign company, ahead of Alibaba's 2014 debut. The stock (ticker SKHY, ten ADRs to one Seoul-listed share) closed its first session up 13% at USD 168, and by Tuesday it had run about 27% to near USD 194, roughly 30% above the IPO price. Options on the ADR opened on 14 July across Cboe and MIAX.

  • A big, short-dated first day. Day one saw about 218,500 contracts. Each contract controls 100 ADRs, so that is exposure to roughly 21.9 million ADRs, north of USD 4bn in notional, on the first session alone. Only five monthly expiries are listed so far, July through September plus December and March 2027, with no weeklies yet, and over two-thirds of volume sat in this Friday's July contract.
  • Triple-digit implied volatility. Implied vol on the 17 July expiry printed near 172%, the put-to-call ratio ran about 0.96, and the busiest line was the USD 185 call. On a brand-new class the practical warning is mechanical: open interest is thin, bid-ask spreads are wide, and a triple-digit implied vol is partly market makers pricing their own uncertainty, so screen prices can jump. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg; see Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
  • The link to Seoul. The ADR and the Seoul-listed shares represent the same company and should track each other over time, but they trade in different sessions, so the US line effectively sets the tone for the next Korean open. Tuesday's 27% ADR jump did exactly that: it preceded Wednesday's 9% to 12% move in the local shares and the Kospi circuit breaker. The ADR now trades at roughly a 50% premium to the Seoul shares, far above the 3% gap at pricing, because ADRs convert freely into local stock while the reverse needs regulatory approval, which blunts the usual arbitrage that would close the gap.

In our view the things to watch are that premium normalising, the thin and wide new-listing options market, and the near-172% implied vol, any of which could move sharply once the debut euphoria fades.

Listing and options data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 14 July 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Conclusion

The soft CPI print reset the front of the vol curve and handed the tape to the AI and memory trade into today. In our view the index level is not the story; the dispersion beneath it is, with chip and memory names trading with a life of their own and a brand-new SK Hynix options market pricing triple-digit near-term volatility. The read that keeps recurring, from correlation to term structure to that first-day SK Hynix activity, is that single-name movement is doing more work than the index-level move heading into TSMC on Thursday.

A contained index range does not mean a quiet day, it means the market expects the action to be idiosyncratic rather than one broad swing. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor, and cheaper index premium is not a signal on its own. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article. FX and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading FX and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how FX and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. This brief is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
Related articles/content             
Options Brief - Banks open the books into CPI - 14 July 2026 Options Brief - Iran jolts the open earnings kick off - 13 July 2026 Options Brief - Vol cools earnings heat up - 10 July 2026 Options Brief - Oil leads metals slip - 9 July 2026 Options Brief - Oil flares chips fade - 8 July 2026 -- Market Quick Take - Chips reclaim the lead - 15 July 2026 Market Quick Take - Inflation fears return - 14 July 2026
More from the author             
  • Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo
  • Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content
Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke
DE 40 forecast: the index enters a correction

Posted on: Jul 14 2026

The DE 40 stock index entered a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: Germany’s industrial production rose by 1.9% month-on-month in May
  • Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The publication of German industrial production data is a moderately positive signal for the DE 40 index. In May, the indicator rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.1%. Furthermore, output continued to rise following a revised increase of 0.2% in April. This significant improvement indicates that Germany’s industrial sector proved stronger than market participants had anticipated.

Since the DE 40 index includes the country’s largest publicly traded companies and represents the main part of German stock market capitalisation, improved macroeconomic indicators may support its price. In the short term, the news could boost demand for shares of companies whose financial results directly depend on industrial production, corporate investment, and export volumes.

Germany’s industrial production, month-on-month: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-mom

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index formed the nearest resistance level at 25,925.0, while the key support level is located near 24,570.0. Quotes entered a correction after hitting a new all-time high. At the same time, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. In this scenario, the nearest target for further upward movement is 26,530.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,570.0 support level could send the index down to 24,035.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,925.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 26,530.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 13 July 2026

Summary

Overall, the impact on the DE 40 should be assessed as positive, but not sufficient to trigger a sustained upward movement on its own. The strong outperformance versus the forecast may support the index and increase investor interest in German industrial stocks. Another positive factor is the 1.9% increase in new manufacturing orders in May, although part of this increase was driven by large orders in the transport engineering sector. At the same time, the further direction of the DE 40 will depend on the state of global trade. The nearest upside target remains 26,530.0.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The ECB holds rates at 2.15% while the Fed stays at 3.75% — and that divergence is the central driver of EURUSD in 2026. The pair is range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1915, with Deutsche Bank targeting 1.2500 and Morgan Stanley calling for 1.3000 by year-end. We analyse the technicals, break down the macro factors, and outline three trading scenarios with specific entry levels.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis

Gold has corrected over 25% from its all-time high of 5,597 USD and is now trading near 4,100 USD — testing a critical support zone. Is this the bottom, or will the downtrend continue? We break down the key levels (support 3,920 USD, breakout trigger 4,500 USD), three trading scenarios with entry levels, and what J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are forecasting for gold in 2026.

Options on leveraged ETFs: how investors actually use them

Posted on: Jul 08 2026

Leveraged ETFs are built to deliver a multiple of one trading day’s return, not a smooth multiple over weeks or months, and holding one too long can quietly work against an investor’s own thesis. This article looks at how options let investors hedge a broader position, define a holding period on purpose, or engage with these instruments more deliberately.

Leveraged ETFs are built for one trading day. Here’s how options let investors work with that reality instead of against it.

Leveraged ETFs have become a fixture on retail trading platforms. US-listed leveraged ETF assets have grown to roughly USD 198 billion, with the large majority held by retail investors rather than institutions (Source: Value The Markets, as of June 2026). For investors who already follow a volatile corner of the market – semiconductors, a single index, a sector rotation story – the appeal is easy to understand: amplified exposure without opening a margin account.

There’s a catch, though. These products are built to deliver a multiple of a single day’s return, not a multiple of the return over a month or a year. Holding one past that horizon can quietly work against an investor’s own thesis. This article walks through the main way options address that directly, hedging a broader position, then runs through a few other ways investors put these instruments to work.

Why leveraged ETFs aren’t built to be held

A leveraged ETF resets its exposure at the close of every session. If the underlying index falls 10% one day and rises 10% the next, a 3x leveraged ETF does not return to its starting value – it ends up lower, because each day’s move compounds on a different base than the day before. This effect, often called volatility decay, means a leveraged ETF’s return can diverge meaningfully from a simple multiple of the index the longer it is held, particularly in choppy, range-bound markets (Source: Britannica Money, as of June 2026).

That divergence is not theoretical. Over the five years to July 2026, IWM, the unleveraged Russell 2000 ETF, is roughly flat to slightly positive. TNA, its 3x leveraged counterpart tracking the same index, remains sharply negative over the same stretch, even after the small-cap index itself worked its way back toward break-even (Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026). The underlying index barely moved on net over five years; the leveraged version did not track that outcome.

IWM vs TNA, indexed return, July 2021 to July 2026 (base = 0%). The unleveraged Russell 2000 ETF ended the period roughly positive; its 3x leveraged counterpart remained deeply negative despite a full market cycle. Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Hedging a broader position

Thesis: An investor holding a basket of stocks tied to a volatile theme – semiconductors, for example – may want downside protection without liquidating the position. Buying puts directly on each individual holding can be expensive and impractical across many names.

Mechanics: Because a leveraged ETF already carries built-in sensitivity to its underlying index, a put option on the leveraged ETF can offset a proportionally larger notional swing elsewhere in the portfolio, using fewer contracts and less capital tied up in premium than an equivalent hedge built directly on the unlevered holdings. The scale of that sensitivity shows up clearly in past drawdowns: during the semiconductor selloff into October 2022, SOXL fell approximately 84% from its July 2021 base at the trough, versus roughly 34% for SOXX, the unleveraged semiconductor index ETF it tracks (Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026).

SOXX vs SOXL, indexed return, July 2021 to July 2026 (base = 0%). The leveraged ETF’s drawdown into October 2022 ran well beyond its unleveraged counterpart’s; the same amplification that produces sharper declines also produces sharper rallies. Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Choosing strike, expiry, and size

  • Strike: closer to the money costs more but starts offsetting losses sooner; further out of the money is cheaper, but only pays off once the decline is already severe.
  • Expiry: match it to how long the exposure actually lasts, not a round-number default. A hedge that expires before the risk it covers is not a hedge.
  • Size: think in delta-adjusted notional, not premium budget. Check the live chain for the leveraged ETF’s current delta to size the exact ratio.

Strategy insight – capital efficiency versus premium cost. The benefit of this approach is capital efficiency: less money tied up for a given amount of offsetting exposure. The risk is that implied volatility on leveraged ETFs tends to run structurally higher than on the unlevered index, so the hedge itself may cost more per unit of protection, even if less capital is required overall.

In our view, the same amplification that makes a leveraged ETF fall further in a selloff could also work in a put buyer’s favour, since a larger move is exactly what a long put is built to capture, and rising implied volatility during that kind of move could add a further, separate source of gain. This is a hypothesis, not a rule: the same elevated IV also makes the put pricier to buy and often comes with wider bid-ask spreads, time decay works against the position throughout, and a violent single trough, like October 2022, is no guarantee a sustained decline follows it.

Hedging a broader position with a leveraged ETF put. Maximum loss is limited to the premium paid; protection increases as the ETF falls. Source: Saxo, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

A few other ways options on leveraged ETFs get used

Hedging is not the only angle. A handful of others come up often enough to be worth a short mention:

  • Defining a holding period on purpose. A leveraged ETF resets daily; holding the shares for several weeks fights that design. A call or put with a stated expiry sets the time horizon and the maximum loss upfront, though time decay still applies for as long as the position runs.
  • Reaching otherwise-closed markets. Most US-domiciled leveraged ETFs lack a PRIIPs Key Information Document, which blocks EU investors from buying the fund directly (Source: Regulation (EU) 1286/2014; Britannica Money, as of June 2026). Listed options on the same ETF are a separate instrument, sometimes still accessible even where the fund itself is not, though the underlying decay risk remains regardless.
  • Adding convex upside without full ownership. A call option offers a smaller, defined-risk way to participate in an amplified move than committing the full capital a leveraged ETF position would require, though the premium is lost in full if the move doesn’t arrive before expiry.

Common leveraged ETFs with listed options

None of the above is specific to a single instrument – any leveraged ETF with listed options works structurally the same way. These are some of the more widely traded examples, spanning different sectors and index exposures:

  • SOXL (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the semiconductor sector; used as the illustrative example throughout this article.
  • UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) – 3x daily exposure to the S&P 500.
  • SSO (ProShares Ultra S&P 500) – 2x daily exposure to the S&P 500, a lower-leverage alternative to UPRO on the same index.
  • TNA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the Russell 2000 small-cap index.
  • FAS (Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the financial sector.
  • TECL (Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the technology sector.

Leveraged exposure also exists on individual mega-cap technology names, the so-called Magnificent Seven, such as GraniteShares’ 2x long Nvidia product (NVDL) and Direxion’s 2x long Tesla product (TSLL); structure and availability vary by issuer and are worth confirming directly.

Liquidity varies sharply across this list, and where it’s thin, bid-ask spreads widen quickly, which can erode profitability before a position even moves. Checking the live option chain for volume and spread, rather than assuming one leveraged ETF behaves like another, remains the first step regardless of which one is involved.

Before placing the trade, check:

  • Bid/ask spreads – wide spreads on leveraged ETF options can eliminate the theoretical edge at entry
  • Volume and open interest – confirm liquidity at the selected strike and expiry before sizing the position
  • IV relative to realised volatility – leveraged ETFs can show implied volatility well above 100% during periods of stress (illustrative range; always verify current IV in the live option chain before evaluating a position), and it is worth checking whether the options market is pricing more movement than the ETF has actually been delivering, or less
  • Timing the purchase – protection is generally cheaper to buy when volatility is low, and on a green day when puts are already discounted, than after a selloff has already pushed implied volatility higher
  • Exit plan – define it before entering, especially for positions intended to run several weeks

Assignment risk note: Leveraged ETF options are typically American-style, meaning short legs can be assigned before expiry if they move in the money. As the buyer of a put or call, there is no assignment risk – only the seller of an option faces this.

Final thoughts

Leveraged ETFs were not designed to be held, and options on them work best when they respect that design rather than fight it. Used as a hedge, they let an investor offset risk elsewhere in the portfolio with less capital tied up. Used in the other ways above, from defining a holding period to reaching an otherwise-closed market, they open up angles the ETF itself does not offer on its own.

None of these turn a leveraged ETF into a long-term holding, and none of them remove the underlying volatility decay. What they offer instead is a more deliberate way to engage with a genuinely volatile corner of the market, with the risk defined before the position is opened, not after.

The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
  • Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts
  •  
  • Understanding the covered call option strategy
  • Understanding the poor mans covered call
  • Understanding the option collar strategy
  • Understanding the naked put option strategy
  • How put options work
  • Understanding the protective put option strategy
  •  
  • Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management
  •  
  • Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know
  • Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment
  • Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage
  • Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet
Related articles/content             
Adding options to your portfolio what actually changes | 26 Jun 2026 Protecting your gains without selling how to hedge a tech portfolio with options | 19 Jun 2026 What investors misunderstand about covered calls | 10 Jun 2026 Covered call or cash-secured put | 2 Jun 2026 From shareholder to options user | 26 May 2026 What is a cash-secured put Using Oracles post-earnings pullback as an example | 12 Jun 2026 Micron before earnings - using a covered call after a strong rally | 29 May 2026 Alphabet after earnings - how a covered call can help investors manage a strong rally | 30 Apr 2026 Tesla shares after earnings could a covered call make sense | 27 Apr 2026 A structured way to buy IWDA at a lower price using options | 20 Mar 2026 How to improve the yield on a long-term IWDA holdings | 12 Mar 2026 How to use a collar to protect stock gains - a Tesla case study | 20 Feb 2026 Palantir after earnings - using options to define a potential entry price | 4 Feb 2026 Golds pullback - thinking beyond buy or sell | 3 Feb 2026 Why options got so popular in recent years | 28 Jan 2026
More from the author             
  • Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo
  • Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content
Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options Income and yield
Options Brief - Back from the holiday, rally cools - 6 July 2026

Posted on: Jul 07 2026

US markets reopen after Friday's Independence Day holiday to find Europe at record highs and Korea's chipmakers extending their rebound, though the momentum is already cooling. With no new US session to price and a landmark SK Hynix ADR listing landing this week, the brief looks at what the options market is actually pricing for today.

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL  |  VIX 15.81  |  TERM: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: ELEVATED (150.02)  |  VIX FUTURES: 17.60

  • Markets reopen to a cooling handoff: US cash equities and listed options were shut Friday for the observed Independence Day holiday. Europe closed at record highs and South Korea's chipmakers extended their rebound, but the tech bounce is already losing steam alongside a firmer dollar heading into Monday.
  • Korea's chipmakers kept rising Friday: the Kospi jumped 5.8% to 8,088, extending its rebound from Thursday's 7.9% plunge, with SK Hynix up 10.9% and Samsung Electronics up 8.2% on renewed AI-chip optimism.

Headline driver

Markets reopen today after Friday's US holiday closure to a mixed handoff: European equities closed at record highs and South Korea's chipmakers extended their rebound from Thursday's rout, but the tech bounce is cooling into Monday's session alongside a firmer dollar. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are now the week's main catalyst, with Q2 earnings season opening Friday. Full macro rundown in Saxo's Market Quick Take, 6 July 2026.

Market snapshot, Friday 3 July 2026 close (Europe/Asia); US markets closed

  • Europe closed at record highs Friday: the Euro STOXX 50 rose 0.8% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.7% to 653, helped by thinner US-holiday trading. ASML rose 3.6% and Infineon 1.4% as AI-linked tech recovered, Siemens added 2.6% on a broker upgrade, and Deutsche Bank gained 1.6%.
  • Asia extended its rebound Friday: the Kospi rose 5.8% to 8,088, recovering from Thursday's 7.9% plunge, with SK Hynix up 10.9% and Samsung Electronics up 8.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.3% to 23,350, helped by a 6.5% gain in BYD.
  • US cash equities and listed options stayed shut Friday for the observed Independence Day holiday; Thursday, 2 July remains the last confirmed US close (source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 6 July 2026).
  • Market regime (rules based read): Low-volatility bull, VIX 15.8, 20-day realised vol 17.1% (rising), S&P 500 +1.2% above its 50-day moving average.

Volatility surface – 6 July 2026, approx. 07:20 CET

VIX term structure

  • VIX spot 15.81 (-2.11%)
  • VIX1D 13.22 (+1.54%) · VIX9D 12.37 (-5.86%)
  • VIX3M 19.04 · VIX6M 21.50 · VIX1Y 23.16, an upward-sloping curve overall despite a small front-end inversion between VIX1D and VIX9D

VIX futures

  • Front-month VIX futures 17.60 (-1.69%), a premium to spot that keeps the curve in contango
  • Second-month VIX futures 18.73 (-1.23%)

Skew and correlation

  • CBOE SKEW 150.02 (-3.10%), still in an elevated zone despite Friday's rally abroad
  • COR3M 8.18 (-0.85%)
  • DSPX 44.80 (+1.04%)

Other measures

  • VVIX 88.80 (-0.27%) · MOVE 65.40 (-4.62%)
  • VXN 27.98 (+1.05%)
  • GVZ 26.00 (-4.13%)

What the market is pricing

  • Friday's holiday closure means there is no fresh US close to react to, and no intraday session has happened yet today either. At the money straddles for the SPX imply an expected move of about 45 points (0.60%) for today's expiry and 94 points (1.25%) through Friday 10 July, a moderate range for the four-day gap since Thursday's close.
  • FOMC minutes are the real trigger. The week ahead is otherwise macro-light. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the main catalyst, Thursday brings jobless claims, and Q2 earnings season opens Friday with Delta Air Lines. SK Hynix's own listing and chipmaker earnings remain a wildcard.
  • Tail-risk demand hasn't gone away. SKEW stayed elevated at 150.02 even as Europe and Asia rallied into the weekend, so demand for far out-of-the-money downside protection held despite the bounce.
  • Watch the dollar-yen cross. USDJPY rose 0.4% to around 161.95 in early Monday trading, partly reversing Thursday's post-jobs-report softness, with Goldman Sachs lifting its USDJPY target to 165 on higher-for-longer US yields. Japanese intervention risk is back in view.

Special this week: SK Hynix’s Nasdaq ADR listing

SK Hynix is set to list American depositary receipts on the Nasdaq under the ticker SKHY as soon as Friday, 10 July, targeting roughly $29.6 billion raised. That would make it the largest ADR listing in market history, ahead of Alibaba’s $21.8 billion New York debut in 2014. Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are lead underwriters, and proceeds are earmarked for memory-capacity expansion, including a new Yongin fab and advanced packaging lines. SK Hynix itself has flagged the date as tentative and subject to change.

Options for SKHY: none exist yet, since SKHY isn’t trading. Standardized options on a newly listed issue typically follow only once it clears exchange criteria on public float and shareholder count, a process that plays out over weeks rather than days, and nothing has been scheduled yet. ProShares has also filed for a 2x leveraged single-stock ETF on SKHY (ticker SKHU), and its own FAQ gives the same answer on timing: the underlying has to trade first, and any options listing on either name follows the options exchanges’ standard criteria after that. Worth revisiting once SKHY has a few sessions on the tape, and a candidate for a dedicated piece later this week.

Conclusion

Europe’s record close and Korea’s extended chip rebound suggest Friday’s risk-on mood carried through the long weekend, but a cooling tech bounce and a firmer dollar both hint that conviction is thinner than the index-level gains suggest. With no new US session to confirm or deny that read, options positioning is the only real gauge of today: a roughly 0.60% expected move that says the desk isn’t bracing for a violent open, even with FOMC minutes, Q2 earnings season and a landmark ADR listing all landing this week.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
Related articles/content             
Options Brief - Soft jobs hard bounce - 3 July 2026 Options Brief - Chips slip Meta jumps - 2 July 2026 Options Brief - Calm on top nervous underneath - 1 July 2026 Options Brief - Chips bounce into H1 close - 30 June 2026 Options Brief - Semis retreat ceasefire lifts the open - 29 June 2026 Options Brief - Apple reprices Micron surges 26 June 2026 -- Market Quick Take - Investors await the next trigger - 6 July 2026 Market Quick Take - 3 July 2026
More from the author             
  • Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo
  • Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content
Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke
The US consumer is "stressed" but spending on cats is "on fire" according to General Mills

Posted on: Jul 04 2026

Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather than hoping for a turn.

The core messages is that they don't assume any improvement.

Dana McNabb (COO) laid it out directly: "What we are anticipating is that as we go into this new fiscal year, the consumer is going to continue to be pressured. And we do expect to see them continue to change their behavior because of that, being more deliberate in how and where they shop, buying more on promotion and less on everyday prices, making trade-offs between pack sizes and channels, all with value at the forefront."

CEO Jeff Harmening reinforced it twice: "we're not anticipating an improved consumer environment or an improved category environment. We're going to make our own success this year." And later: "I think it's really important to reiterate, which I think I've done, but to reiterate that we're not expecting that environment to improve."

There have been good indications on US aggregate spending lately but they're tilted towards more-wealthy consumers while General Mills has better insight into the middle and lower-end market. They have been struggling for years as consumers switch to store brands. After the pandemic, they tried to push pricing on their flagship brands like Cheerios and consumers balked, leading to a rout in the shares.

The company rallied after earnings this week reported EPS of 95-cents compared to the 80-cent consensus. Revenue turned around, rising 1% year-over-year (though guided flat for FY2027).

After trying to push on pricing, the company pivoted and lowered prices to fight for volume with store brands.

In terms of pricing, the company said its inflation outlook is 4-5% on assumptions of oil near $100 but even with oil falling, they expect it to be at the lower part of the band.

On the K-shaped economy specifically, McNabb said:

"We did see the middle lower income households eat a little bit more at-home and spend a little bit more on staples, so think cooking from home, but nothing significant." At-home eating held "pretty stable... at 86%."

She used the term outright: "there is a portion of the economy in this K economy that will spend more." The playbook is opening price points and packaging innovation for the low end, large value packs for big families, and premium functional benefits for the top: "making sure that we understand how stressed the consumer is going into this fiscal year that we don't take that for granted."

One booming part of their business? People forgoing children and spending their money on cats.

"Our humanization trend in pet will continue and cats are on fire, cat growth is on fire," McNabb said.

My overall take is that companies are no longer modeling a recovery, and instead they're building plans that assume the stress is permanent.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.