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Today’s Links

QT to wind down soon and yield to fresh QE? This was something we flagged months ago, but it now appears that we are at crunch time soon on when the Fed, if it really wants to control its policy rate, will have to surrender control of its balance sheet to the Treasury, a.k.a. the era of total fiscal dominance is soon upon us. Some thoughts from the “Fed guy” Joseph Wang on this as well as from FTAlphaville.

Crypto acting weird - what is this all about? I have no idea myself, but in recent weeks, crypto has stopped correlating with general risk sentiment. When long-established divergences break, it doesn’t mean they necessarily will rejoin, but that something else is afoot. Endgame Macro takes a stab at declaring that crypto may be taking on a new more prominent role now. Time will tell - share your thoughts and/or share links to the people you follow that are neither boosters nor haters but the experts and visionaries grappling with understanding all of these signals!

Big single stock swings are becoming more common and perhaps also worrisome. FT note that these enormous 100 billion-plus moves in single stocks are a possible sign of fragility. Sounds right - the broader volatility could suddenly become eye-watering if a cluster of stocks - think AI - are all hit by the same news item. Be careful out there.

Humanoid robots to fold your clothes and do your dishes? For just USD 499 a month, you can rent a NEO robot that “does your chores and offers personalized assistance” and even, apparently, can dance for you on command. It apparently ships next year, and will do things autonomously or via human control remotely for an assist. Is this really the future?

Finally, these are the cases against Trump’s tariffs the Supreme Court will hear next Wednesday.

Chart of the Day - Another big day for Nvidia

Nvidia’s shares advanced another 5% on hopes that the US will open up for Nvidia Blackwell (highest end GPU’s for data center AI applications) exports to China. Certainly, China has the leverage in its control of rare earth supply chains to have extracted this and further concessions. But China has previously signalled that it wants to go it alone on AI infrastructure. Was that a way of casting doubt on US leverage on its access to the highest end chips? Time will tell, but Nvidia shares are now priced for this additional boost to demand, at least in the near term - requiring that in coming day or days, that the US will loosen controls on chip exports. The move has taken the company’s market cap to just south of USD 4.9 trillion, a fresh record.

Weekly chart

Questions and comments, please!

The Saxo Weekly Market Compass

27 October 2025 (recap week of 20–24 October 2025)

Where markets have been — and where they’re heading.

Headlines & introduction

Markets closed the week on a high as softer US inflation, renewed US–China trade optimism, and solid corporate earnings lifted global sentiment. The S&P 500 reached record territory, volatility eased to pre-summer levels, and tech regained leadership. European equities mirrored the move, while Asia benefitted from political clarity in Japan and steady Chinese data. Crypto and commodities reflected risk-on appetite as investors positioned ahead of this week’s key Federal Reserve decision and Big Tech earnings. Market tone: cautiously confident, with volatility resetting lower and rate-cut bets firming.

Equities

Tech and trade relief carried global equities to fresh highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to a new record high near 6,740, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.0%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.6% as small-caps showed tentative catch-up. Softer inflation, easing tariff risks, and strong corporate results fuelled the advance. Ford jumped 12% on upbeat guidance, Intel beat forecasts with a revenue rebound, and Tesla gained 2% after better-than-feared delivery numbers. Honeywell and American Airlines rallied on solid results, while Netflix and Texas Instruments lagged, underscoring uneven sector strength.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 added modestly and the FTSE 100 closed at a record. The Netherlands’ AEX reached a new all-time high near 979, Belgium’s BEL 20 touched 5,047, and Germany’s DAX hovered close to its peak of 24,641. France’s CAC 40 climbed past 8,200, driven by luxury heavyweights LVMH, Hermès, and Kering as investors rotated into high-margin exporters. Across the region, industrials, luxury, and energy names led gains. Asia also ended firm — Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced on optimism around US–China trade talks. Market pulse: record-setting benchmarks and resilient earnings reinforced optimism, though gains remain narrow and megacap-driven.

Volatility

From fear to focus as the VIX slides. Volatility dropped steadily through the week, with the VIX moving from above 18 to around 16 as trade and inflation worries eased. Short-term hedging measures like VIX9D fell nearly 10%, signalling reduced demand for protection. Still, implied moves around the S&P 500 remain moderate (≈ ±1.4%) into Fed week — calm but not complacent. Market pulse: options pricing shows confidence but little room for disappointment.

Digital assets

Crypto rallied on policy clarity and softer inflation. Bitcoin climbed above $111 000 and Ethereum near $4 000, buoyed by macro relief and regulatory progress in Europe. ETF-linked flows remained steady, and risk appetite improved across digital assets. The advance remains tied to broader market sentiment rather than isolated crypto dynamics. Market pulse: macro relief and regulatory progress kept crypto buyers engaged.

Fixed income

Yields rebounded as risk sentiment improved. US Treasury yields edged higher into the weekend as investors rotated out of safety ahead of policy events. The 10-year yield settled near 4.0% and the 2-year around 3.48%, implying modest rate-cut expectations. In Europe, German yields rose with the Schatz near 1.97%. Japan’s JGBs held steady despite inflation pressures. Market pulse: bonds face headwinds from stronger risk sentiment but remain anchored by rate-cut hopes.

Commodities

Energy strength offset precious-metal fatigue. Brent crude surged above $65 on supply-tightening worries and demand optimism. Energy topped weekly gains (+6.7%), while gold slipped toward $4 000 as safe-haven demand waned. Base metals and grains rose modestly, reflecting the shift into cyclicals. Market pulse: oil regained momentum while metals paused after an extended rally.

Currencies

Dollar steady, yen weak, krone firm. The USD held broadly as the market balanced risk appetite with rate expectations. USDJPY tested 153 before easing, while the yen remained under pressure amid muted BOJ tightening signals. The Norwegian krone strengthened on higher oil prices (EURNOK ≈ 11.59), and the AUD pressed toward 0.6550 on improved trade-deal sentiment. Market pulse: FX markets are calm, with moves driven by yield spreads and commodity flows.

Key takeaways

• Major US indices hit new records: S&P 500 +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.0%, Dow +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.6%.
• AEX, BEL 20, DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE 100 also reached or neared record highs.
• Earnings beats from Ford, Intel, and Honeywell lifted sentiment; Netflix and Texas Instruments underperformed.
• Volatility dropped toward mid-teens as risk-aversion faded.
• Crypto advanced with macro tailwinds and regulatory cues.
• Treasury yields rose modestly amid improving sentiment.
• Oil surged above $65 while gold paused near $4 000.
• USD stable; JPY weak; NOK and AUD stronger.

Looking ahead (week of 27–31 October 2025)

Fed meets as megacap earnings land mid-week.

The FOMC meets 28–29 Oct, with markets leaning toward a 25 bp cut. Chair Jerome Powell’s tone on inflation, labour softness, and quantitative-tightening will set the near-term path. Data delays from the government shutdown mean forward guidance may carry extra weight. Key US prints include Case-Shiller home prices and consumer confidence (Tue), pending home sales (Wed), and jobless claims and Q3 GDP (Thu).

Earnings concentration raises single-night gap risk.

Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta report Wednesday; Apple and Amazon follow Thursday — putting roughly $15 trillion in market capitalisation under the spotlight. Investors will focus on AI cap-ex, cloud growth (Azure, GCP, AWS), margins, and holiday guidance. With implied volatility compressed, even small misses could drive sharp reactions.

Europe watch: expectations, policy tone, and read-throughs.

The ECB’s consumer expectations survey and IFO readings will shape Thursday’s policy session, where a hold is expected. Corporate earnings in energy, luxury, and industrials will test margin resilience into year-end. UK retail sales and Euro-zone PMIs will offer additional demand clues.

Asia and commodities in focus.

China’s manufacturing PMI (Thu) and Japan’s industrial output (Fri) may reveal whether policy support is translating into production gains. Oil commentary from OPEC+ and supply developments remain key for the commodity cycle.

Note on trading hours (EU ↔ US, 27–31 Oct):

Europe has returned to standard time (CET), while the US remains on daylight time until Sunday, 2 Nov. This means US regular trading hours (09:30–16:00 ET) run from 14:30–21:00 Brussels time this week — one hour later than usual until US clocks switch.

Market pulse: a binary, event-heavy week — policy guidance and Big Tech delivery will decide whether October’s momentum extends or resets.

Conclusion

The week closed with risk appetite restored, volatility subdued, and equities setting records. Yet beneath the calm surface, positioning is heavy in a few leaders and macro visibility remains clouded by politics and delayed data. The coming week could act as a pivot point: if guidance from the Federal Reserve and earnings from the megacaps reinforce the soft-landing narrative, momentum may stretch further. But any hawkish tone, earnings misses, or trade-policy surprises could quickly test valuations. Investors face a delicate choice — lean into the rally or trim exposure ahead of a high-stakes week.

Open Interest Monitor – 21 October 2025 - Global X Uranium ETF (URA) deep dive

Data through market close 2025-10-20

This monitor scans US-listed options markets to identify where open interest (OI) is concentrated, where skew and IV suggest positioning, and how this translates into sentiment signals. Each edition also features a focused options deep dive on a selected underlying—where we analyze volatility structure, positioning, and flow data to better understand what market participants may be anticipating.

URA options deep dive – the quiet power trade behind the AI boom

If the AI trade has a hidden backbone, it’s the energy grid — and that grid increasingly runs through nuclear. Behind the headlines about chips and servers, the real bottleneck is power. Every new data centre needs baseload capacity that renewables can’t yet provide. That’s why uranium equities, and the Global X Uranium ETF (ticker URA), have turned into a quiet momentum engine on the energy side of the AI story.

Liquidity in URA’s options has deepened fast. Daily volume now rivals mid-tier index ETFs, spreads are tight, and volatility is rich enough to matter. For traders, it’s the rare setup where narrative, liquidity, and volatility all align — a playground for structured views rather than outright bets.

The volatility picture: steep wings, calm core

At first glance URA looks overheated. Implied volatility is pinned near the top of its one-year range, with IV Rank pushing 100 %. But that number hides the real story: it’s the shape, not the level, that’s loud.

The 24 Oct weekly isn’t a broad volatility spike — it’s a put-wing blowout. Traders are paying up for short-term downside protection while the at-the-money vol stays well-behaved. In other words, hedging pressure, not panic.

Flow check: who’s doing what

On 20 October, roughly 3 ,800 puts vs 1 ,500 calls traded across URA’s chain — a heavy lean toward downside insurance. The flow clustered around the 52 P and 55 P strikes, both pricing IV in the low 70s. Open interest confirms it:

That stack builds a 55–58 “pin shelf” heading into expiry, with max pain at $54 for the weekly and $52 for the monthly. This is classic short-dated hedging behaviour: keep exposure, insure the tail, roll week by week.

Expected move: the market’s cone of comfort

The 24 Oct at-the-money straddle prices an expected move of ± $3.26 (≈ ± 6.1 %), mapping a $50 – $56.5 range around a $54.5 spot. That’s the market’s “cone of comfort” — stay inside it, and theta rules; break it, and gamma takes over. Beyond October, the term structure flattens; November vol relaxes fast, implying traders see this as noise, not a new regime.

• Hedging pressure, not fear: skew is carrying the whole vol print; ATM vol is unremarkable.
• Short-dated demand: protection is bought, not sold, and only through this Friday.
• Liquidity sweet-spot: tight spreads and responsive vol make URA a practical vehicle for tactical positioning.
• Macro tailwind: nuclear now sits in the same conversation as semis — not hype, but infrastructure.

Important note: The strategies and examples described are purely for educational purposes. They assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor must conduct their own due diligence, considering their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risks, so make informed decisions.

Strategy lenses (illustrative, not advice)

Why this matters

URA’s chain is now a microcosm of the energy market’s next phase: AI-driven power demand meets nuclear scarcity. Volatility is high because traders care — not because they’re afraid. For options desks, that’s gold: ample liquidity, rich short-dated premium, and a story big enough to last longer than one expiry.

Bottom line

Short-term skew in URA isn’t a warning; it’s a signal that the market’s finally pricing nuclear energy as essential infrastructure. For traders, it’s a live, liquid case study in how narrative volatility behaves — and how to trade around it.

What’s driving open interest shifts this week?

With the Uranium ETF deep dive complete, we now turn our attention to the broader market. Below is our weekly scan of the top 20 names by 1-month open interest growth, filtered for those with at least 100,000 in options volume.

These are the tickers where traders are most aggressively positioning, rolling, or hedging—and the shifts can offer early clues about narrative changes, speculative flows, or hedging intensity. From critical minerals and crypto miners to automation and AI, these OI movers often reflect more than just price action.

Top 20 names by open interest growth

Note: Table now ranks US-listed underlyings by highest one‑month OI change, filtered to daily options volume > 100,000.

Column explainer (see glossary below)

• IV Rank (%): Position of current IV within its 1Y range
• Total OI: Aggregate open contracts (calls + puts)
• 1M OI % Chg: One-month percentage change in OI
• Options Vol: Most recent trading day total options volume
• P/C Vol: Put-to-call volume ratio (1-day snapshot)

What the data shows

This week’s shifts in open interest highlight a blend of speculative activity in smaller-cap names and renewed defensive positioning in established hedges. At the top of the list, Canaan (CAN), Poet Technologies (POET), and American Battery Technology (ABAT) stand out with month-on-month OI gains between 30–36%. The move suggests traders are gravitating toward niche growth and energy-transition themes, where news flow and volatility often travel hand in hand. ABAT’s unusually high put/call ratio near 1.7 hints at a hedging element beneath the surface.

Volatility exposure also returned to favour through the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX), which saw a 23% rise in OI as traders rebuilt protection following its recent drop below 20. Meanwhile, gold’s continued draw is evident in the GLD ETF, where open interest rose 15% and implied volatility sits near the top of its annual range. Together, $VIX and GLD point to an undercurrent of caution even as equity indices stabilise.

Crypto-related assets remain another clear thread. Bitfarms (BITF), Terawulf (WULF), and Webull Corp (BULL) joined IBIT, Cipher Mining (CIFR), Cleanspark (CLSK), and Core Scientific (CORZ) among the most active contracts, reflecting steady institutional engagement in digital-asset proxies. For most of these, implied volatility sits mid-range—offering traders room to express directional views without paying extreme premiums.

Large-cap names such as PayPal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), and Bank of America (BAC) feature in the second half of the table, each showing modest OI growth but subdued volatility. Their presence reinforces how flows have broadened beyond the pure speculative end of the market into more traditional sectors.

Deeper takeaways

The dispersion in implied volatility is notable. GLD, SLV, and CIFR all show IV ranks above 80%, suggesting expensive premium levels, while BAC, WULF, and CAN remain below 20%, implying that volatility pricing still favours selective selling in lower-beta names.

Put/call ratios help separate hedging from speculation. GLD and $VIX display elevated ratios—clear signs of protection building—whereas POET, CORZ, and SOXS exhibit extremely low readings, typical of call-heavy speculative interest.

Overall, the picture is one of a split market mood: defensive positioning in gold and volatility, offset by sustained appetite for high-risk and crypto-linked plays. Open interest is rising in both camps, underscoring that traders are active but divided—building protection with one hand, and chasing exposure with the other.

Conclusion

Today’s leaderboard tilts toward precious metals and crypto-linked exposure, with a side note of index volatility ($VIX) seeing renewed OI growth. Elevated IV Ranks in GLD/SLV/GDX frame a costlier premium backdrop, while several crypto miners show rising interest on moderate IV. Put/call skews are mixed, suggesting selective hedging rather than broad risk-off. As always, OI is a map of positioning — not a price forecast — and should be read alongside catalysts, liquidity, and realised volatility.

Glossary

• Ticker: the exchange-listed symbol for the underlying stock, ETF, or index. Indices are noted with a $ prefix in general use, but we map them to specific exchange codes in the ticker string.
• Name: the company or ETF name associated with the ticker. ETFs typically describe their focus, such as “S&P 500” or “20+ Year Treasury Bonds.”
• Last: The last traded price of the underlying asset (stock, ETF, or index). This gives a reference point for where the asset currently trades and helps identify how close it is to key strike levels in the option chain.
• IV Rank (%): Implied Volatility Rank (IV Rank) shows where current implied volatility sits relative to the past 12 months. A reading of 0% means IV is at its lowest point of the year; 100% means it's at the highest. Higher IV Rank suggests options are more expensive compared to recent history, which may favour premium-selling strategies.
• Total Open Interest (Total OI): This is the total number of open option contracts across both calls and puts for the underlying. It represents outstanding positions that have not yet been closed or exercised. High OI is often associated with deep liquidity and significant institutional interest.
• 1M OI % Change: Shows how much total open interest has changed over the past month. A rising figure can point to fresh positioning or increased speculation, while a falling number may indicate closed-out trades or reduced interest in the underlying.
• Options Volume: The number of option contracts traded during the most recent session. High volume relative to open interest may suggest new trades are being initiated. Sudden spikes often coincide with market-moving news or upcoming events.
• Put/Call Volume Ratio (P/C Vol): This ratio compares the volume of puts traded to calls on the same day. A ratio above 1.0 implies more puts were traded (often for downside protection), while a value below 1.0 shows call-heavy flow (often speculative or bullish). Extreme readings can highlight skewed sentiment or potential contrarian signals.