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Chips slide, index shrugs - Options Brief - 27 July 2026

Posted on: Jul 28 2026

Friday’s index barely moved. Underneath it, the semiconductor ETF fell more than three percent and the average stock rose. The question is what happens to that arrangement when the Fed and four megacaps land in the same week.

Friday was one of those sessions where the headline number hides more than it shows. The S&P 500 finished at 7,411.98, up 0.05% while the semiconductor ETF SMH fell 3.27%, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.78%. The average stock had a good day; the index barely moved.

Market regime: Neutral / chop. VIX 18.58, 20-day realised volatility 10.2% and falling, S&P 500 0.85% below its 50-day moving average.

Key findings

MARKET REGIME: Neutral / chop  |  VIX 18.58  |  TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: ELEVATED (147.28)  |  FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.61

  • Correlation near its floor. COR3M closed at 10.00 with DSPX at 44.09, so a 3.27% drop in the semis ETF left the index up 0.05% and VIX down 0.64% to 18.58.
  • Hedging sat in the sector, not the index. Friday’s confirmed-opening protection concentrated in the semiconductor ETF, while part of the index-level downside was sold rather than bought.
  • The front of the VIX curve flattened. Front-month futures at 18.61 hold a premium of only 0.03 to spot, against 0.95 on Thursday, with VIX3M at 20.51 keeping the curve in contango.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 27 July 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Headline driver

Over the weekend the picture shifted again. A second night of paused US strikes on Iran pulled Brent down 8.98% to 88.09 dollars this morning, Treasuries rallied and US futures point to a chip-led rebound. Full macro rundown in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – Oil gaps lower as US-Iran strikes pause, Fed in focus, 27 July 2026.

Market snapshot, Friday 24 July 2026 close

  • US (Friday 24 July close): Nasdaq 100 28,128.34, down 1.15%. Dow Jones 51,952.20, up 0.45%. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, 291.17, down 0.31%. Intel fell about 8% despite a second-quarter beat, after raising its capital-spending plan, and the Korea ETF EWY dropped 6.27% on the memory complex. Software went the other way, IGV up 1.01%. Sector dispersion was wide: real estate (XLRE) up 2.22% and materials (XLB) up 1.93% against technology (XLK) down 1.44%. Apple rose 3.53% to 333.02; Nvidia fell 0.92% to 206.84. Costs and charges apply to ETF trades; see Saxo pricing for full details.
  • Europe (Friday close): the Stoxx 600 rose 0.82% to 644.52 and the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.14%, banks leading with the Euro Stoxx Banks index up 2.12%. The DAX climbed 1.36% and the CAC 40 rose 0.88%.
  • Asia (Monday morning): the de-escalation lifted the region, Hang Seng up 0.81% and Hang Seng Tech up 1.69%. The KOSPI traded 1.00% lower, still working through Friday’s memory selloff.
  • Commodities, rates and crypto (this morning): WTI fell 4.75% to 85.07 alongside Brent, unwinding most of last week’s conflict premium. Gold sat at 4,093.80, up 0.56%. The US 10-year yield eased to 4.634% and the 2-year to 4.297%. EURUSD traded at 1.14034, USDJPY at 163.58, bitcoin near 65,200 dollars.
  • Volatility complex (Friday close): VIX1D 15.43, VIX9D 17.62, VIX3M 20.51, VIX6M 22.43, VIX1Y 23.76, second-month VIX futures 19.57, VVIX 100.73, SKEW 147.28, COR3M 10.00, DSPX 44.09, MOVE 76.82, VXN 28.39, GVZ 24.33, OVX 68.00, RVX 22.33, VXD 15.40, VSTOXX 18.55. The equity put/call ratio rose 12.11% to 0.977, the index-only measure 23.99% to 1.070.
  • Market regime (rules based read): Neutral / chop. VIX 18.58, 20-day realised volatility 10.2% and falling, S&P 500 0.85% below its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 27 July 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 24 July, Friday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

  • Single-name flow gave no usable direction. The largest megacap lines were sold or crossed at mid, with upside supply in the biggest AI chip name running against two-sided positioning in Apple ahead of this week’s print. Energy majors were the one clean pocket, drawing fresh call interest into the autumn expiries.
  • Sector and ETF flow was legible and defensive. Protection concentrated in the semiconductor sector ETF, comfortably the heaviest confirmed-opening cluster of the session, with smaller layers in financials, healthcare and biotech. In our view positioning looked hedged at the sector level and closer to neutral at the index level.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Where ETFs are referenced, costs and charges apply; see Saxo pricing for full details.

Volatility surface – 27 July 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

  • VIX spot 18.58 (-0.64%), lower on a day the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.15%
  • VIX1D 15.43 (+4.89%), the only gainer on the term structure · VIX9D 17.62 (-2.92%), now below spot
  • VIX3M 20.51 · VIX6M 22.43 · VIX1Y 23.76, all above spot, the curve upward-sloping beyond the front

VIX futures

  • Front-month VIX futures 18.61 (-3.23%), a premium of only 0.03 to spot against 0.95 on Thursday
  • Second-month VIX futures 19.57 (-2.08%), front-to-second ratio at 0.950, so the curve stays in contango with later-dated contracts above nearer ones

Skew and correlation

  • CBOE SKEW 147.28 (+0.91%), up 1.33 points and well above the 100 to 120 neutral zone: investors kept paying up for downside protection even as spot volatility fell
  • COR3M 10.00 (+7.99%), only just into double digits, with index names still priced to move on their own catalysts
  • DSPX 44.09 (-3.69%), the S&P 500 dispersion index, more than twice the level of the VIX. Equity put/call ratio 0.977, index put/call 1.070

Cross-asset volatility

  • OVX 68.00 (-1.41%), oil volatility still 3.7 times the VIX at Friday’s close
  • GVZ 24.33 (-3.22%) · MOVE 76.82 (-4.07%), Treasury volatility falling as yields came off last week’s high
  • VXN 28.39 (+1.18%), at a 53% premium to the VIX · RVX 22.33 · VXD 15.40 · VVIX 100.73 (-1.41%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 27 July 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

  • Session implied move. S&P 500 options price roughly 53 points, about 0.71%, for today’s session. Derived from at-the-money option-implied pricing, not a forecast.
  • Event-week implied move, and how it has moved. The 31 July expiry prices roughly 134 points, about 1.81%, against 140 points, 1.88% quoted for that same expiry two sessions ago. One session has rolled off since, and on a flat-volatility path that decay alone would have left about 128 points. In our view the market may have added premium to Fed week rather than taken it out, despite this morning’s drop in crude. Derived from at-the-money option-implied pricing, not a directional call. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
  • Dispersion read. COR3M, DSPX and a VXN/VIX ratio of 1.53 price single-name and sector volatility well above index volatility. In our view the market may still be paying for names to move apart.
  • Tail read. SKEW stayed elevated while VIX fell and front-month futures gave up their premium to spot. In our assessment demand may be sitting in the wings of the distribution rather than its body, a different exposure from a general rise in volatility. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Today’s catalysts

A light start to a heavy week. US durable goods orders land at 14:30 CET, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index at 16:30 CET, and 2-year and 5-year Treasury note auctions at 19:00 CET. LVMH and Christian Dior report before the US open.

The week itself carries the FOMC decision on Wednesday 29 July at 20:00 CET, with the press conference at 20:30 and money markets pricing better than a one-in-three chance of a rate increase. Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Lam Research, ARM and SK Hynix report on 29 July, Apple and Amazon on 30 July. The Bank of England decides on 30 July alongside US second-quarter GDP and the PCE deflator, and the Bank of Japan meets 30 to 31 July.

When the index is the wrong thing to hedge

A 3.27% fall in the semiconductor sector ETF used to be an index event. On Friday it was not: real estate, materials, financials and software all closed higher while chips took the loss. COR3M at 10.00 points to the mechanism. With correlation this low, index volatility prices far below the average volatility of the components, because offsetting moves cancel inside the index before they reach the print.

That matters for anyone carrying concentrated sector risk. An index put is priced off index volatility and pays only when the broad market moves together, so in our view it may be an imperfect match for a drawdown that stays inside one sector. Friday’s flow suggests desks had reached the same conclusion, since the session’s heaviest protection sat in the sector ETF while index downside was partly sold. Costs and charges apply to each leg; see Saxo pricing for full details.

Correlation regimes also end abruptly. On Thursday COR3M jumped 22.8% to 9.26 when AI capex doubts and 100 dollar Brent arrived together, and the S&P 500 fell 1.21% as the megacaps stopped offsetting each other. This week carries a live Fed decision plus Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, any of which could turn out to be one shared catalyst rather than four separate ones. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 27 July 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Conclusion

In our view Friday said more about where risk sat than about direction, describing a market that prices sector risk and index risk as two different problems at very different levels. Heading into a live Fed decision and four megacap reports, the same low correlation that kept the index quiet on Friday is what could amplify a move if this week delivers one catalyst instead of several. Future outcomes are uncertain and may result in losses. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor; see Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The author holds no positions in the instruments mentioned.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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DE 40 forecast: the index is testing the support level

Posted on: Jul 21 2026

During the correction, the DE 40 stock index began to test the support level, which could lead to a trend reversal. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: Germany’s CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in June
  • Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The German inflation data release has a moderately positive, but limited, impact on the DE 40 index. The annual Consumer Price Index slowed from 2.6% to 2.3% in June, while prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month. At the same time, the published figures were fully in line with the forecast and confirmed the preliminary estimate, so much of the information had already been factored into stock prices before the final data was released. For this reason, the publication itself is unlikely to trigger a sharp rise in the DE 40, although it creates a more favourable backdrop for the German stock market.

For the DE 40, this could result in growing interest in stocks of companies focused on domestic consumption, industry, and capital expenditure. Slower price growth supports household purchasing power and reduces the likelihood of a sharp fall in consumer spending. At the same time, lower inflation typically leads to a decline in government bond yields, as investors begin to expect less restrictive monetary policy.

Germany’s inflation rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/inflation-cpi

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index moved into a corrective decline after hitting a new all-time high. The nearest resistance level formed at 25,925.0, while the key support level is located at 24,570.0. Despite the current correction, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Only a breakout below the support level could signal a trend reversal. If growth resumes, the next target could be 26,530.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,570.0 support level could push the index down to 24,035.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,925.0 resistance level could propel the index up to 26,530.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 20 July 2026

Summary

Overall, the release creates a moderately positive backdrop for the DE 40 and the German stock market, but it is not a sufficiently strong basis for sustained growth in the index. The fact that the actual result matches the forecast reduces the likelihood of a pronounced initial reaction. Consumer, industrial, chemical, technology, and real estate-related companies may receive the main support. The nearest upside target remains 26,530.0.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

EURUSD has pulled back from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and is now trading near 1.1450 — below both EMA65 and EMA200 — with the active scenario shifting from bullish to bearish. The ECB raised rates to 2.40%, but the Fed holds at 3.75%, and US inflation (3.5%) continues to outpace the eurozone (2.8%). A confirmed break below 1.1280 opens the next downward wave toward 1.1080. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers, and what Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and UBS are forecasting for EURUSD in 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis

Gold has corrected over 25% from its all-time high of 5,597 USD and is now trading near 4,100 USD — testing a critical support zone. Is this the bottom, or will the downtrend continue? We break down the key levels (support 3,920 USD, breakout trigger 4,500 USD), three trading scenarios with entry levels, and what J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are forecasting for gold in 2026.

ICYMI - France orders ISPs to block Polymarket after prediction market ban ignored

Posted on: Jul 20 2026

The move underscores growing regulatory unease with prediction markets across Europe, with France joining Germany, Italy and Spain in restricting or blocking access to platforms like Polymarket. For an increasingly mainstream and fast-growing product, tighter enforcement in a major European market signals that regulators are prepared to escalate from transaction bans to full site blocks when compliance falls short, a precedent other jurisdictions weighing similar rules will likely watch closely. It also adds to a string of integrity concerns around prediction markets, including the hacking of a French weather probe to influence bets and a US soldier's alleged use of classified information for wagers, both of which strengthen the case for regulators to act. For platforms like Polymarket, the episode highlights regulatory and reputational risk as a growing headwind even as trading volumes and public interest continue to expand.

--- France has moved from banning bets on Polymarket to blocking the site outright.

Summary:

  • France's national gaming authority ANJ said Friday it had ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket's website, according to France24
  • The order builds on a November 2024 ban that already prohibited financial transactions to the prediction market site from French accounts
  • ANJ said Polymarket's continued visibility, with betting odds updated in real time, amounted to unlawful advertising for an unauthorised gambling site, an offence carrying fines of up to €100,000
  • The regulator said visits to Polymarket from French internet addresses had been rising despite the transaction ban, reaching 578,751 last month
  • France's weather agency Meteo-France filed a complaint in April after one of its weather probes was hacked to manipulate bets on Polymarket
  • A US soldier is facing federal charges for allegedly using classified information to bet on prediction markets tied to the January operation that captured former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, netting more than $400,000
  • WSJ: Polymarket paid creators to fake trades and wins in covert US social media campaign

France ordered its internet service providers on Friday to block access to Polymarket, escalating its crackdown on the online prediction market beyond an existing ban on financial transactions to the site. The national gaming authority ANJ said the site would now be inaccessible on French territory, building on a November 2024 measure that already barred French accounts from sending money to the platform.

Polymarket is among a number of online prediction markets that let users bet on the outcome of future events, from elections to geopolitical developments. ANJ said the site's continued availability in France, where betting odds are updated in real time as events unfold, effectively functioned as advertising for an unauthorised betting operation. The regulator noted that advertising for an unauthorised betting or gambling site by any means is a criminal offence in France, with fines that can reach €100,000.

Despite the transaction ban already in place, ANJ said traffic from French internet addresses to Polymarket had continued to climb, reaching 578,751 visits last month alone, evidence that punters were finding ways around the restriction and prompting the tougher response.

The regulator's action comes as prediction markets face mounting scrutiny over integrity issues. France's national weather service, Meteo-France, filed a complaint in April after one of its weather probes was hacked in an apparent attempt to manipulate the outcome of related bets on Polymarket. Separately, a US soldier is facing federal charges for allegedly using classified information to place bets on prediction markets tied to the January operation that captured former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, allegedly profiting more than $400,000 in the process.

France is not alone in taking a hard line on the sector. The ANJ noted that Germany, Italy and Spain are among other European countries that restrict or block access to online prediction markets. France continues to permit conventional online sports betting, drawing a clear distinction between regulated wagering and unauthorised prediction market platforms like Polymarket.  

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
US Tech forecast: the index is trading sideways

Posted on: Jul 18 2026

The US Tech index is trading in a sideways range with no sign of a trend reversal. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: US CPI came in at 3.5% in June 2026
  • Market impact: this data is negative for the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

The annual Consumer Price Index declined from 4.2% to 3.5%, while the market had expected 3.8%. Thus, inflation came in not only significantly below the previous reading, but also better than the forecast. An additional positive signal was that core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, slowed from 2.9% to 2.6% year-on-year and remained unchanged compared to May. The overall monthly price index fell by 0.4%, primarily due to a 5.7% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, housing costs rose by only 0.1%, the smallest monthly increase in this component since January 2021. Therefore, easing price pressure is visible not only in the energy component of the index, but also across a number of more stable categories.

US inflation rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

For the US Tech index, this data is predominantly positive. Technology companies are especially sensitive to interest rate expectations, as a significant portion of their market value is based on their expected future profits. When inflation slows, investors begin to expect looser Federal Reserve policy and lower government bond yields. In this case, the future earnings of technology companies are valued higher, which creates conditions for their stocks to rise.

US Tech technical analysis

The release is also positive for the overall US stock market. Weaker inflation reduces the risk of further rate hikes and increases the likelihood of rate cuts in the coming months. This may lead to lower bond yields, a weaker dollar, and a shift of capital towards stocks. At the same time, slower price growth supports real household incomes.

US Tech technical analysis for 17 July 2026

The US Tech index continues its corrective movement, although selling pressure may gradually decline, increasing the likelihood of a consolidation phase. The nearest resistance level is located at 30,690.0, with the key support level at 28,415.0. Despite the current pullback, the broader uptrend remains intact; however, without pronounced demand from buyers, the market may shift into a sideways range. If growth resumes, the next potential target for the index could be 31,895.0.

The US Tech price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout below the 28,415.0 support level could send the index down to 27,525.0
  • Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 30,690.0 resistance level could propel the index up to 31,895.0

Summary

Overall, the report creates favourable conditions for the US Tech and the US stock market. The main positive signal is not only the decline in headline inflation below the forecast, but also the slowdown in core inflation and housing costs. The most likely initial reaction is a rise in technology stocks and other equities sensitive to interest rates. However, to form a sustained upward movement, the market will need confirmation from the next inflation and labour market reports, as well as clearer signals from the Federal Reserve about the possibility of an interest rate cut. The nearest upside target could be 31,895.0.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

EURUSD has pulled back from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and is now trading near 1.1450 — below both EMA65 and EMA200 — with the active scenario shifting from bullish to bearish. The ECB raised rates to 2.40%, but the Fed holds at 3.75%, and US inflation (3.5%) continues to outpace the eurozone (2.8%). A confirmed break below 1.1280 opens the next downward wave toward 1.1080. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers, and what Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and UBS are forecasting for EURUSD in 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis

Gold has corrected over 25% from its all-time high of 5,597 USD and is now trading near 4,100 USD — testing a critical support zone. Is this the bottom, or will the downtrend continue? We break down the key levels (support 3,920 USD, breakout trigger 4,500 USD), three trading scenarios with entry levels, and what J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are forecasting for gold in 2026.

Options Brief - Cool CPI, SK Hynix options debut - 15 July 2026

Posted on: Jul 16 2026

A far softer June CPI knocked back rate-hike bets, crushed one-day VIX by nearly 28% and handed the tape to the AI and memory trade. Options on SK Hynix's newly US-listed ADR opened with about 218,500 contracts, most of it short-dated and priced near 172% implied volatility, while the ADR trades at a 50% premium to its Seoul shares. The brief covers the front-of-curve vol reset, a dispersion market where single names ignore the index, and what to watch in a brand-new options listing.

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL  |  VIX 16.50  |  TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: 145.13  |  FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.45

  • Event vol collapsed once CPI cleared. A far softer June CPI knocked back rate-hike bets, and one-day VIX1D fell 27.75% to 10.57 as the event passed, while the rest of the curve held contango out to VIX1Y at 23.28. Spot VIX eased 3.85% to 16.50.
  • Dispersion, not direction. Three-month implied correlation COR3M dropped 8.49% to 7.65, near cycle lows, while the dispersion index (DSPX) rose to 47.37. SK Hynix, Samsung and the US chip names ran hard while the broad index barely moved.
  • The memory trade took over. SK Hynix's newly listed US options and a 27% ADR jump helped push Korea's Kospi up about 8% into a buy-side circuit breaker, and ASML raised its full-year sales outlook for the second time this year.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 14 July 2026 close, approx. 06:00 CET, futures and Asian markets live into Wednesday. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

June CPI landed far softer than feared on Tuesday, with headline prices falling 0.4% on the month and easing to 3.5% year on year and core flat at 2.6%, which knocked back fast-rising rate-hike bets and lifted Wall Street's AI and chip complex. This morning the memory trade took over: SK Hynix's newly listed US options and a 27% jump in its ADR helped push the Kospi up roughly 8% into a buy-side circuit breaker, while ASML raised its full-year sales outlook for the second time this year.

Full macro rundown in Saxo's Market Quick Take - Chips reclaim the lead - 15 July 2026.

Market snapshot, Tuesday 14 July 2026 close

  • US (Tuesday 14 July close): the S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,543.59 and the Nasdaq 100 added 1.10%, led by Nvidia (+4.06% to 211.80), Alphabet (+2.0%) and the semis (SMH +2.5%), while the Dow finished essentially flat. Breadth was thin: the S&P equal-weight index slipped 0.38% and healthcare (XLV) fell 1.9%.
  • Asia (Wednesday 15 July ~06:00 CET): the Kospi surged about 8% to 7,413 and tripped a buy-side circuit breaker, powered by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while the Hang Seng added 1.5%.
  • Europe (Wednesday 15 July open): the Stoxx 600 rose 0.2% and the AEX added 0.4%, with ASML in focus after its outlook raise.
  • Commodities and rates: WTI held near USD 80 and Brent near USD 86, gold traded near USD 4,038, and the US 10-year yield sat near 4.60% with the 2-year near 4.20%.
  • Market regime (rules-based read): Low-volatility bull, VIX 16.5, 20-day realised volatility about 12.4% and falling, S&P 500 roughly 1.3% above its 50-day moving average. This multi-week signal lags the single-name action now under way.

Equity and vol data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 14 July 2026 close and Wednesday pre-market. Costs and charges apply to ETF trades; see Saxo pricing for full details. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 14 July, Tuesday's positioning and not today's price action. This flow pre-dates this morning's SK Hynix and ASML moves, so it describes how desks leaned into the close, not how the market is trading now.

Single-name flow leaned bullish only in the semiconductor complex, where confirmed call demand across the chip names dominated the tape, the kind of buying that can leave dealers short upside calls and mechanically supportive on strength. Mega-cap tech premium looked heavily put-weighted on the surface, but it was skewed by deep in-the-money, longer-dated structures rather than fresh downside bets, so the bearish read there is weak. Broad index and ETF flow was close to balanced and dominated by mid-market prints and longer-dated hedges, which reads as positioning and roll activity rather than a directional macro view, leaving dealers roughly two-sided at the index level. Read together, desks leaned modestly bullish on semis while keeping index-level conviction low.

What to watch today: ASML's earnings call and the read-through to the AI and memory chain after the outlook raise, plus any follow-through in SK Hynix now that its options are live, ahead of TSMC's report on Thursday.

Volatility surface - 15 July 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

  • VIX spot 16.50 (-3.85%)
  • VIX1D 10.57 (-27.75%) · VIX9D 13.46 (-11.04%)
  • VIX3M 19.30 (-1.73%) · VIX6M 21.52 (-0.78%) · VIX1Y 23.28 (-0.60%), contango out to one year, with the front crushed hardest as VIX1D marked the passing of the CPI event

VIX futures

  • Front-month VIX futures 18.45, above a spot VIX of 16.50
  • Second-month VIX futures 19.45, front-to-second ratio 0.945, a steady contango

Skew and correlation

  • CBOE SKEW 145.13 (-0.38%), the premium for out-of-the-money downside protection, range-bound
  • COR3M 7.65 (-8.49%), three-month implied correlation, near cycle lows
  • DSPX 47.37 (+1.07%), the S&P 500 dispersion index, firming. Equity put/call ratio 0.77, index put/call 1.01

Cross-asset volatility

  • OVX 59.89 (-0.60%), oil volatility running near 3.6x the VIX
  • MOVE 75.03 (-3.53%), the Treasury gauge, easing
  • GVZ 25.02 (-7.09%) · VXN 26.28 (-3.74%) · RVX 20.67 (-6.60%) · VVIX 93.53 (-1.84%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 14 July 2026 close.

What the market is pricing

  • Session implied move. With VIX1D back at 10.57, the one-day vol surface implies a move of only about 0.65%, near 50 S&P points, for the current session. The market is pricing today's calendar as light now that CPI is behind it.
  • Correlation read. COR3M near cycle lows with the dispersion index rising says the market is paying up for single-stock movement while pricing the index calmer. A tape where SK Hynix and Samsung jump 6% to 12% while the S&P adds 0.4% is that bet playing out in the open.
  • Tail risk signal. SKEW near 145 and VVIX eased to 93.53, so even with the melt-up in chips the market is not paying up for downside protection. What is priced here is continuation risk in single names, not an index-level break.
  • Term structure and premium. Front and second-month VIX futures sit above spot in contango, and 20-day realised vol at 12.4% is running below implied, so in our view the market is embedding a calmer index than options imply, a backdrop that can favour premium sellers. The catch is dispersion: the priced-in calm is an index-level story, and the real movement is in single names. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

This week: the SK Hynix options debut, in focus

The topic of the day is a brand-new US options market on the world's hottest memory name. SK Hynix's American depositary receipts priced at USD 149 on 9 July and raised USD 26.5bn, the largest US share sale ever by a foreign company, ahead of Alibaba's 2014 debut. The stock (ticker SKHY, ten ADRs to one Seoul-listed share) closed its first session up 13% at USD 168, and by Tuesday it had run about 27% to near USD 194, roughly 30% above the IPO price. Options on the ADR opened on 14 July across Cboe and MIAX.

  • A big, short-dated first day. Day one saw about 218,500 contracts. Each contract controls 100 ADRs, so that is exposure to roughly 21.9 million ADRs, north of USD 4bn in notional, on the first session alone. Only five monthly expiries are listed so far, July through September plus December and March 2027, with no weeklies yet, and over two-thirds of volume sat in this Friday's July contract.
  • Triple-digit implied volatility. Implied vol on the 17 July expiry printed near 172%, the put-to-call ratio ran about 0.96, and the busiest line was the USD 185 call. On a brand-new class the practical warning is mechanical: open interest is thin, bid-ask spreads are wide, and a triple-digit implied vol is partly market makers pricing their own uncertainty, so screen prices can jump. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Costs and charges apply to each leg; see Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
  • The link to Seoul. The ADR and the Seoul-listed shares represent the same company and should track each other over time, but they trade in different sessions, so the US line effectively sets the tone for the next Korean open. Tuesday's 27% ADR jump did exactly that: it preceded Wednesday's 9% to 12% move in the local shares and the Kospi circuit breaker. The ADR now trades at roughly a 50% premium to the Seoul shares, far above the 3% gap at pricing, because ADRs convert freely into local stock while the reverse needs regulatory approval, which blunts the usual arbitrage that would close the gap.

In our view the things to watch are that premium normalising, the thin and wide new-listing options market, and the near-172% implied vol, any of which could move sharply once the debut euphoria fades.

Listing and options data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 14 July 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Conclusion

The soft CPI print reset the front of the vol curve and handed the tape to the AI and memory trade into today. In our view the index level is not the story; the dispersion beneath it is, with chip and memory names trading with a life of their own and a brand-new SK Hynix options market pricing triple-digit near-term volatility. The read that keeps recurring, from correlation to term structure to that first-day SK Hynix activity, is that single-name movement is doing more work than the index-level move heading into TSMC on Thursday.

A contained index range does not mean a quiet day, it means the market expects the action to be idiosyncratic rather than one broad swing. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor, and cheaper index premium is not a signal on its own. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article. FX and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading FX and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how FX and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. This brief is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke
DE 40 forecast: the index enters a correction

Posted on: Jul 14 2026

The DE 40 stock index entered a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: Germany’s industrial production rose by 1.9% month-on-month in May
  • Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The publication of German industrial production data is a moderately positive signal for the DE 40 index. In May, the indicator rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.1%. Furthermore, output continued to rise following a revised increase of 0.2% in April. This significant improvement indicates that Germany’s industrial sector proved stronger than market participants had anticipated.

Since the DE 40 index includes the country’s largest publicly traded companies and represents the main part of German stock market capitalisation, improved macroeconomic indicators may support its price. In the short term, the news could boost demand for shares of companies whose financial results directly depend on industrial production, corporate investment, and export volumes.

Germany’s industrial production, month-on-month: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-mom

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index formed the nearest resistance level at 25,925.0, while the key support level is located near 24,570.0. Quotes entered a correction after hitting a new all-time high. At the same time, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. In this scenario, the nearest target for further upward movement is 26,530.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,570.0 support level could send the index down to 24,035.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,925.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 26,530.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 13 July 2026

Summary

Overall, the impact on the DE 40 should be assessed as positive, but not sufficient to trigger a sustained upward movement on its own. The strong outperformance versus the forecast may support the index and increase investor interest in German industrial stocks. Another positive factor is the 1.9% increase in new manufacturing orders in May, although part of this increase was driven by large orders in the transport engineering sector. At the same time, the further direction of the DE 40 will depend on the state of global trade. The nearest upside target remains 26,530.0.

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Options on leveraged ETFs: how investors actually use them

Posted on: Jul 08 2026

Leveraged ETFs are built to deliver a multiple of one trading day’s return, not a smooth multiple over weeks or months, and holding one too long can quietly work against an investor’s own thesis. This article looks at how options let investors hedge a broader position, define a holding period on purpose, or engage with these instruments more deliberately.

Leveraged ETFs are built for one trading day. Here’s how options let investors work with that reality instead of against it.

Leveraged ETFs have become a fixture on retail trading platforms. US-listed leveraged ETF assets have grown to roughly USD 198 billion, with the large majority held by retail investors rather than institutions (Source: Value The Markets, as of June 2026). For investors who already follow a volatile corner of the market – semiconductors, a single index, a sector rotation story – the appeal is easy to understand: amplified exposure without opening a margin account.

There’s a catch, though. These products are built to deliver a multiple of a single day’s return, not a multiple of the return over a month or a year. Holding one past that horizon can quietly work against an investor’s own thesis. This article walks through the main way options address that directly, hedging a broader position, then runs through a few other ways investors put these instruments to work.

Why leveraged ETFs aren’t built to be held

A leveraged ETF resets its exposure at the close of every session. If the underlying index falls 10% one day and rises 10% the next, a 3x leveraged ETF does not return to its starting value – it ends up lower, because each day’s move compounds on a different base than the day before. This effect, often called volatility decay, means a leveraged ETF’s return can diverge meaningfully from a simple multiple of the index the longer it is held, particularly in choppy, range-bound markets (Source: Britannica Money, as of June 2026).

That divergence is not theoretical. Over the five years to July 2026, IWM, the unleveraged Russell 2000 ETF, is roughly flat to slightly positive. TNA, its 3x leveraged counterpart tracking the same index, remains sharply negative over the same stretch, even after the small-cap index itself worked its way back toward break-even (Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026). The underlying index barely moved on net over five years; the leveraged version did not track that outcome.

IWM vs TNA, indexed return, July 2021 to July 2026 (base = 0%). The unleveraged Russell 2000 ETF ended the period roughly positive; its 3x leveraged counterpart remained deeply negative despite a full market cycle. Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Hedging a broader position

Thesis: An investor holding a basket of stocks tied to a volatile theme – semiconductors, for example – may want downside protection without liquidating the position. Buying puts directly on each individual holding can be expensive and impractical across many names.

Mechanics: Because a leveraged ETF already carries built-in sensitivity to its underlying index, a put option on the leveraged ETF can offset a proportionally larger notional swing elsewhere in the portfolio, using fewer contracts and less capital tied up in premium than an equivalent hedge built directly on the unlevered holdings. The scale of that sensitivity shows up clearly in past drawdowns: during the semiconductor selloff into October 2022, SOXL fell approximately 84% from its July 2021 base at the trough, versus roughly 34% for SOXX, the unleveraged semiconductor index ETF it tracks (Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026).

SOXX vs SOXL, indexed return, July 2021 to July 2026 (base = 0%). The leveraged ETF’s drawdown into October 2022 ran well beyond its unleveraged counterpart’s; the same amplification that produces sharper declines also produces sharper rallies. Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Choosing strike, expiry, and size

  • Strike: closer to the money costs more but starts offsetting losses sooner; further out of the money is cheaper, but only pays off once the decline is already severe.
  • Expiry: match it to how long the exposure actually lasts, not a round-number default. A hedge that expires before the risk it covers is not a hedge.
  • Size: think in delta-adjusted notional, not premium budget. Check the live chain for the leveraged ETF’s current delta to size the exact ratio.

Strategy insight – capital efficiency versus premium cost. The benefit of this approach is capital efficiency: less money tied up for a given amount of offsetting exposure. The risk is that implied volatility on leveraged ETFs tends to run structurally higher than on the unlevered index, so the hedge itself may cost more per unit of protection, even if less capital is required overall.

In our view, the same amplification that makes a leveraged ETF fall further in a selloff could also work in a put buyer’s favour, since a larger move is exactly what a long put is built to capture, and rising implied volatility during that kind of move could add a further, separate source of gain. This is a hypothesis, not a rule: the same elevated IV also makes the put pricier to buy and often comes with wider bid-ask spreads, time decay works against the position throughout, and a violent single trough, like October 2022, is no guarantee a sustained decline follows it.

Hedging a broader position with a leveraged ETF put. Maximum loss is limited to the premium paid; protection increases as the ETF falls. Source: Saxo, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

A few other ways options on leveraged ETFs get used

Hedging is not the only angle. A handful of others come up often enough to be worth a short mention:

  • Defining a holding period on purpose. A leveraged ETF resets daily; holding the shares for several weeks fights that design. A call or put with a stated expiry sets the time horizon and the maximum loss upfront, though time decay still applies for as long as the position runs.
  • Reaching otherwise-closed markets. Most US-domiciled leveraged ETFs lack a PRIIPs Key Information Document, which blocks EU investors from buying the fund directly (Source: Regulation (EU) 1286/2014; Britannica Money, as of June 2026). Listed options on the same ETF are a separate instrument, sometimes still accessible even where the fund itself is not, though the underlying decay risk remains regardless.
  • Adding convex upside without full ownership. A call option offers a smaller, defined-risk way to participate in an amplified move than committing the full capital a leveraged ETF position would require, though the premium is lost in full if the move doesn’t arrive before expiry.

Common leveraged ETFs with listed options

None of the above is specific to a single instrument – any leveraged ETF with listed options works structurally the same way. These are some of the more widely traded examples, spanning different sectors and index exposures:

  • SOXL (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the semiconductor sector; used as the illustrative example throughout this article.
  • UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) – 3x daily exposure to the S&P 500.
  • SSO (ProShares Ultra S&P 500) – 2x daily exposure to the S&P 500, a lower-leverage alternative to UPRO on the same index.
  • TNA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the Russell 2000 small-cap index.
  • FAS (Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the financial sector.
  • TECL (Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the technology sector.

Leveraged exposure also exists on individual mega-cap technology names, the so-called Magnificent Seven, such as GraniteShares’ 2x long Nvidia product (NVDL) and Direxion’s 2x long Tesla product (TSLL); structure and availability vary by issuer and are worth confirming directly.

Liquidity varies sharply across this list, and where it’s thin, bid-ask spreads widen quickly, which can erode profitability before a position even moves. Checking the live option chain for volume and spread, rather than assuming one leveraged ETF behaves like another, remains the first step regardless of which one is involved.

Before placing the trade, check:

  • Bid/ask spreads – wide spreads on leveraged ETF options can eliminate the theoretical edge at entry
  • Volume and open interest – confirm liquidity at the selected strike and expiry before sizing the position
  • IV relative to realised volatility – leveraged ETFs can show implied volatility well above 100% during periods of stress (illustrative range; always verify current IV in the live option chain before evaluating a position), and it is worth checking whether the options market is pricing more movement than the ETF has actually been delivering, or less
  • Timing the purchase – protection is generally cheaper to buy when volatility is low, and on a green day when puts are already discounted, than after a selloff has already pushed implied volatility higher
  • Exit plan – define it before entering, especially for positions intended to run several weeks

Assignment risk note: Leveraged ETF options are typically American-style, meaning short legs can be assigned before expiry if they move in the money. As the buyer of a put or call, there is no assignment risk – only the seller of an option faces this.

Final thoughts

Leveraged ETFs were not designed to be held, and options on them work best when they respect that design rather than fight it. Used as a hedge, they let an investor offset risk elsewhere in the portfolio with less capital tied up. Used in the other ways above, from defining a holding period to reaching an otherwise-closed market, they open up angles the ETF itself does not offer on its own.

None of these turn a leveraged ETF into a long-term holding, and none of them remove the underlying volatility decay. What they offer instead is a more deliberate way to engage with a genuinely volatile corner of the market, with the risk defined before the position is opened, not after.

The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options Income and yield