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DE 40 forecast: the index continues to rise, with conditions for a new all-time high in place

Posted on: Dec 09 2025

The DE 40 stock index has formed a strong uptrend, which may enter a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: Germany’s factory orders grew by 1.5% m/m
  • Market impact: this data creates a mixed background for German equities

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Factory orders in Germany increased by 1.5% m/m, far exceeding expectations of 0.3%, although slowing from the previous 2.0%. For the market, this is a signal that the industrial sector remains active: companies continue to receive new orders, meaning future revenue and capacity utilisation. The result is significantly better than forecast, so it is a positive surprise for the stock market, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous month.

For the DE 40 index, such data is a supportive factor. Strong orders typically push index futures higher and create a favourable backdrop for growth on the day of the release, especially if external news from the US or China does not interfere. Within the index, movement will likely be uneven: the strongest contribution to growth may come from major industrial and export-oriented companies – the core of the German economy.

Germany’s factory orders: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/factory-orders

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index broke above the key resistance level at 23,890.0, with a new support level formed at 23,440.0. The prevailing trend is upward, and its duration remains uncertain. The next upside target is 24,460.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,440.0 support level could send the index to 22,955.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 23,890.0, the index could climb to 24,460.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 8 December 2025

Summary

Importantly, this does not signal a powerful new growth cycle, but rather confirms the stability of current conditions. Therefore, the effect on the DE 40 can be described as moderately positive, likely supporting the index and limiting the depth of a potential correction, but not sufficient to guarantee a sustained rally without support from other data and the global backdrop. The nearest upside target for the index may be 24,460.0.

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This year’s set of Saxo Outrageous Predictions is now out! The year 2026 will inevitably shape up in crazy ways, the predictions are a series of stabs at the kind of outrageousness the year ahead could deliver. Also available as a PDF.

The FX Trader I penned yesterday, chiefly focusing on USDJPY and JPY dynamics, but also a bit on EURUSD (which is testing above the key 1.1650+ area as I am writing this

My former colleague Peter Garnry weighs in with three key takeaways for investors from the life and career of Warren Buffett after having read one of his biographies. Great perspectives, as always.

Endgame Macro ponders the implications of this push by the Dells in their $6.x billion giveaway to establish savings account for all newborn Americans in the coming few years, a move echoed by US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently. Is this a backdoor to encouraging a savings mentality, with some portion of those savings forced into treasuries?

Say what - a cure for HIV? Would be expensive to do for everyone with the disease, but this is remarkable.

Again, Mike Green’s post on the true poverty threshold where life begins to get a bit easier for a middle class family is gaining enormous attention and is worth a ready if you haven’t seen it already. This will continue to drive populist politics - also from the left, as we saw with Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the NYC mayoral race. There is also a follow up post countering the criticism and negative feedback.

Chart of the Day - The big regime shift in USDJPY

I have covered this quite a bit on the podcast, but just to illustrate it in today’s post below: we have seen en entirely new regime shift in USDJPY over the last couple of months. USDJPY used to correlate quite closely for long periods with the direction of US longer treasury yields, the theory being that lower yields compressed the yield differentials to Japan’s yields and discouraged carry trading. Now we have long Japanese yields running to the upside while US yields are stable (multi-trillion dollar question - are US yields stable because market knows it wouldn’t take much for the Fed to intervene, so why bother to be a bond vigilante if you get a bit intervention slap in the face just as the going gets good?) The yen going down while long JGB yields go up is theoretically an “emerging market dynamic”. This chart is to illustrate, not to predict, but tracking this correlation and any shifts in it may be critical for sensing that something new is afoot and the JPY can rally (like the fact that the Eurozone and the US are really in the same boat eventually, while the UK has been nervously grappling with the same dynamics in its new budget - time will tell whether those efforts are credible.) I do notice that the last few days have seen JPY going sideways in the crosses and even gaining on the US dollar despite the extension higher in Japanese yields - a sign or too early?

 

Source: Bloomberg

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investingLive Americas FX news wrap 28 Nov: USD heads lower to end the week. Stocks higher

Posted on: Nov 29 2025

  • Major US stock indices close higher and extend the winning streak to 5 days
  • What are the key technical levels in play for the major currency pairs as the week closes?
  • European indices close mostly higher on the day. Solid gains for the week.
  • Ukraine's Zelenskyy: Talks with the US are to happen in the near future
  • Canada GDP Q3 annualized +2.6% vs +0.5% expected
  • Kickstart the NA trading session for Nov. 28 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
  • Germany November preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expected
  • investingLive European markets wrap: Quiet Black Friday

The USD was mostly lower with the exception being the GBP (USD up a modest 0.05%).

A snapshot of the changes of the USD vs the major currencies as US traders head home early for the weekend shows:

  • EUR -0.04%
  • GBP +0.05%
  • JPY -0.10%
  • CHF -0.19%
  • CAD -0.36%
  • AUD -0.21%
  • NZD -0.10%

The big mover was the USDCAD after the GDP came in stronger at 2.6% vs 0.5% estimate.

  • GDP Q3 Q/Q +0.6% vs -0.4% prior (revised to -0.5%)
  • GDP YoY 2.6% vs 0.5% estimate

The BoC projected +0.5%, so this blows it out of the water However, it was mainly driven by a big fall in imports. Nevertheless, it allows the BOC to sit back for a whiled

From StatCan, they said:

"The rise in the third quarter was driven by a strengthening trade balance, as imports dropped and exports edged up. Increased capital investment was driven by government capital spending, as business investment was flat. Overall growth was dampened by declines in household and government final consumption expenditures as well as a slower accumulation of business inventory."

The USDCAD fell to the 50% of the trading range since September low at 1.39367 and bounced higher. The pair is closing near a key swing area between 1.3968 to 1.3976.

For a look at that currency pair from a technical perspective as well as other major pairs vs the USD, click on the video below:

The US major stock indices all closed higher on the day and for the 5th consecutive day, but the Nasdaq closed lower for the month.

Despite the gains the NASDAQ is closing lower on the month for the 1st time since March (-1.51%). The S&P eked out a small gain of 0.13% for the month. The Dow industrial average rose 0.32% for the month.

For the trading day:

  • Dow industrial average rose 289.30 point or 0.61% at 47716.42.
  • S&P index rose 36.48 points or 0.54% at 6849.09.
  • NASDAQ index rose 151 points or 0.65% at 23365.69

Looking at the US debt market:

  • 2-year yield 3.497%, +1.6 basis point
  • 5 year yield 3.601%, +2 point basis points
  • 10 year yield 4.019%, +2.1 basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.665%, +2.2 basis points
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.