News

Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 11-17th April 2026:

Posted on: Apr 12 2026

Newsquawk Week Ahead  Highlights include US/Iran Talks, US Earnings Season, US PPI, Chinese GDP, Australian Jobs, UK GDP and ECB Minutes   Week Ahead Market...

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United States GDP Q4 2025 Revised Lower, Core PCE Shows Little Change - 10 April 2026

Posted on: Apr 11 2026

US fourth-quarter GDP was revised sharply lower to 0.5% while Core PCE held steady at 3.0%, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates soon.
Crypto Corner: ETH Contends With Resistance (Again)

Posted on: Apr 08 2026

The Daily Breakdown takes a look at the technical setup for Ethereum. BKNG rallies on a stock split, while health insurance stocks jump. Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your…

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Gold’s Multi-Trillion Dollar Sell-Off: What Really Drove the Decline?

Posted on: Apr 03 2026

Understanding the Real Forces Behind the Gold Market Drop Gold Price Today The recent gold market sell-off has shaken investor confidence, wiping out multiple trillions...

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Good Friday Trading Hours 2026

Posted on: Apr 02 2026

Dear traders, Please note that the Metals market will be closed on April 3rd, in observance of Good Friday. We appreciate your understanding and recommend planning your trades accordingly. Warm regards, UnitedPips Ltd

The post Good Friday Trading Hours 2026 appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Posted on: Apr 01 2026

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1429; (P) 1.1476; (R1) 1.1509; More…. EUR/USD recovered ahead of 1.1408 support as consolidations continue. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected with 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 […]

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COT update: dollar buying eases; grains in demand; metals slump attracts muted response

Posted on: Mar 31 2026

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 24 March 2026

Key points:

  • Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 24 March 2026.
  • In FX, the Middle East conflict continued to underpin the dollar, albeit at a slower pace, driven by a collapse in the EUR long
  • Commodities saw another week of strong buying, led by energy and grains, despite an overall decline in the BCOM index as precious metals slumped
  • Interestingly, the double-digit slump in gold, silver, and platinum only triggered a limited reaction with long liquidation the main focus while short sellers stayed away. 

Forex:

The Middle East conflict continued to underpin the dollar, albeit at a slower pace in the latest reporting week to last Tuesday, 24 March. While positioning flows turned more mixed and less one-sided, the gross dollar long versus eight IMM futures still rose to USD 7.53 billion, the highest level since early December.

Speculators sold the euro for a sixth consecutive week. Since early February, the net long has collapsed from 180,000 contracts (EUR 22.5 billion equivalent) to a one-year low of 9,279 contracts (EUR 1.2 billion equivalent), highlighting a sharp reversal in sentiment.

Elsewhere, selling of CHF, CAD, and NZD was only partly offset by renewed demand for JPY, GBP, and MXN. In USDJPY, traders modestly reduced their JPY net short from a 20-month high, as intervention risk increased with the pair approaching 160. On Friday, USDJPY closed at 160.30, despite warnings from Japan’s finance minister that “bold actions” could be taken to counter excessive currency moves.

Meanwhile, the AUD long continued to grind higher, reaching an 8½-year high at 70,872 contracts (USD 4.9 billion equivalent).

Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions

Commodities

The latest COT report, covering the week to Tuesday, 24 March, showed another week of strong buying despite a 2.1% setback in the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The decline was driven primarily by heavy losses in precious and industrial metals, while energy, grains, and softs all recorded gains.

The overall net long across the 25 major futures contracts tracked rose to 1.8 million contracts—a four-year high—representing a nominal value of USD 175 billion. Of this, USD 80 billion is concentrated in energy, a reduced USD 50 billion in metals, and USD 27 billion in grains, with the balance spread across softs and livestock.

Beyond the developments in energy and grains highlighted below, it is notable that the double-digit slump in gold, silver, and platinum has had only a limited impact on positioning. There has been little appetite for fresh short selling, indicating the correction has so far been driven by long liquidation rather than a broader shift in sentiment. As the Middle East war extends to a fifth week, markets appear to be transitioning from an inflation shock caused by surging energy prices - previously weighing on bonds and gold - to a more pronounced growth shock. This shift is increasingly pressuring equities, while beginning to lend support to both bonds and gold as investors reassess the balance between inflation risks and slowing economic activity. In energy, managed money reduced its net long in Brent by 5% to 407,000 contracts, while modest buying was seen across the two WTI contracts. The pullback in Brent positioning from an eight-year high followed a temporary price setback early in the week, after Trump delayed potential strikes and signalled talks with Iran—comments that were subsequently denied by Tehran.

Outside energy, the grains sector has staged a strong revival. This move is being driven by a combination of deteriorating US winter wheat conditions—following prolonged heat and drought across the Plains—and escalating geopolitical disruption. The Iran war has impeded both energy flows and fertilizer trade, prompting farmers globally to secure critical inputs.

Year-to-date, a 12% gain in the Bloomberg Grains Subindex has triggered a covering of entrenched short positions in wheat, while long positions in corn, soybean meal, and soybean oil have climbed to fresh 12-month highs. This has driven a sharp reversal in managed money positioning across six key contracts—from a net short of 258,000 in late January to a four-year high net long of 720,000 in the latest reporting week.

At the same time, the surge in input costs—particularly diesel and fertilizers—raises the risk of reduced planting or lower yields, increasing the likelihood of tighter supply and higher global food prices.
Managed money positions in key commodities futures covering the week to 24 March, 2026
Managed money positions in key energy futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo
Managed Money positions in key metal futures - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo
Grains seeing surging demand from managed money accounts - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
Ole HansenHead of Commodity StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy (Sector) Forex COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex Trump Version 2 - Traders CZ ESMA disclaimer
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Posted on: Mar 29 2026

EUR/USD remains bounded in consolidations above 1.1408 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further decline is expected with 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 […]

The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.
Forex Today: Crude Oil Rises, Stocks Fall as Iran Deadline Approaches - 26 March 2026

Posted on: Mar 27 2026

Irans Confirms Reviewing Proposal, Leaks Say Gaps Remain Huge; Prediction Markets Don't Expect Ceasefire Before May
Top 3 trade ideas for 25 March 2026

Posted on: Mar 26 2026

Trade ideas for GBPUSD, USDCHF, and EURGBP are available today. The ideas expire on 25 March 2026 at 9:00 AM (GMT +3).

GBPUSD trade idea

The GBPUSD currency pair is showing signs of forming a local top, which is negatively affecting market sentiment and increasing the likelihood of a bearish impulse developing. Despite this, the hourly timeframe allows for a continuation of the upward move in the near term before the downtrend resumes. This creates conditions for a potential extension of the corrective rise followed by a reversal lower. The preferred strategy remains to look for sell opportunities on rallies. The key resistance zone is located at 1.3460, where selling pressure is expected to strengthen. Today’s trading idea for GBPUSD предполагает placing a pending Sell Limit order.

The news background for GBPUSD indicates a predominance of bearish expectations — 53% versus 47%. The risk-to-maximum-profit ratio exceeds 1:4. Potential profit upon reaching the first take-profit level is 173 points, the second 265 points, while potential losses are limited to 61 points.

Trading plan

  • Entry point: 1.3460
  • Target 1: 1.3287
  • Target 2: 1.3195
  • Stop-Loss: 1.3521

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USDCHF trade idea

The USDCHF currency pair maintains a medium-term bullish bias. The current market structure indicates buyer dominance, while corrective pullbacks are likely to be limited by the previous day’s low. Despite the overall upward momentum, the risk-to-reward ratio for opening long positions from current levels remains unfavorable, reducing the attractiveness of buying without a prior pullback to more advantageous levels. The preferred strategy remains to look for buying opportunities on dips. The key support zone is located at 0.7860. Today’s trading idea for USDCHF предполагает placing a pending Buy Limit order.

The news background for USDCHF shows a predominance of bullish expectations — 52% versus 48%. The risk-to-maximum-profit ratio is 1:5. Potential profit upon reaching the first take-profit level is 80 points, the second 100 points, while potential losses are limited to 20 points.

Trading plan

  • Entry point: 0.7860
  • Target 1: 0.7940
  • Target 2: 0.7960
  • Stop-Loss: 0.7840

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EURGBP trade idea

The EURGBP currency pair shows a moderately bearish bias. The formation of a Doji candlestick pattern indicates uncertainty and a possible exhaustion of the upward impulse, which increases the probability of a shift toward a decline in the short term. The 0.8680 level acts as key resistance and has repeatedly played an important role for the market. Additional technical resistance is forming near the 50-day EMA on the daily chart, which further reinforces the significance of the 0.8680 area. The preferred strategy remains selling on rallies into the resistance zone. Today’s trading idea for EURGBP предполагает placing a pending Sell Limit order.

For EURGBP, there is a predominance of bullish sentiment — 52% versus 48%. The risk-to-maximum-profit ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit upon reaching the first take-profit level is 53 points, the second 63 points, while potential losses are limited to 18 points.

Trading plan

  • Entry point: 0.8675
  • Target 1: 0.8622
  • Target 2: 0.8612
  • Stop-Loss: 0.8693

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