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The JP 225 stock index corrected towards the support level, but the global trend remains upward. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s GDP in Q3 2025 decreased by 1.8%
• Market impact: moderately negative for the Japanese stock market

JP 225 fundamental analysis

Japan’s annualised GDP indicator showed a decline of -1.8% versus the forecast of -2.5% and the previous growth of 2.3%. This means the economy shifted from expansion to contraction, although the downturn turned out to be less severe than analysts expected. Formally, this still signals cooling: companies on average produce and sell less than a year ago, and both domestic and external demand weakened. Such data is generally negative for the Japanese stock market because a weaker economy usually implies cautious consumer and business behaviour, slower investment activity, and pressure on company revenues, especially those focused on the domestic market.

For the JP 225 index, where a significant share belongs to large export-oriented companies, the effect is also mixed. On the one hand, weak GDP hits expectations for domestic demand. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan’s soft policy and the associated risks of a weaker yen support exporters, as a declining currency boosts their competitiveness and increases profits when converted into yen.

JP 225 technical analysis

Within the correction phase, the JP 225 rebounded from the 48,425.0 support level. Before resuming its rise, the index may trade sideways. The global trend remains upward. The resistance level has formed at 52,680.0. The nearest upside target stands at 55,000.0.

The JP 225 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 48,425.0 support level could send the index down to 46,370.0
• Optimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout above the 52,680.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 55,000.0

Summary

In the short term, Japan’s stock market and the JP 225 index will likely react with heightened volatility: some investors will price in the risk of further slowdown, while others will bet on central bank support and a potentially weaker yen. In the long run, the future trajectory of the JP 225 will depend on whether upcoming macroeconomic reports confirm a declining trend and what specific actions the Bank of Japan takes. The next upside target for the JP 225 stands at 55,000.0.

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The DE 40 stock index is testing the lower boundary of its medium-term sideways channel. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s trade balance for September 2025 stood at 15.3 billion EUR
• Market impact: the data creates a mixed background for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The latest German trade balance data showed a surplus of 15.3 billion EUR, compared with a forecast of 16.7 billion and a previous reading of 16.9 billion. Although the surplus remains, its volume has declined and came in below market expectations. For the German economy, where the export of capital goods, automobiles, and chemicals is a key GDP driver, this signals cooling external demand or a faster rise in imports. For the stock market, it implies that consensus forecasts for revenues and margins of export-oriented companies may be revised downwards.

For the DE 40 index, this could trigger a mildly negative reaction in the short term, primarily through valuation adjustments in the automotive, industrial, and chemical sectors, which represent a significant portion of the index and are sensitive to global trade dynamics. A weaker trade balance increases the likelihood that GDP growth will remain moderate and that the industrial recovery will take longer, limiting the potential for expansion of P/E multiples in cyclical industries.

DE 40 technical analysis

For the DE 40 index, the key resistance level is located near 24,130.0, while a new support level has formed at 23,675.0. The prevailing trend is downward, and its duration remains uncertain. The next downside target is 23,270.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,675.0 support level could send the index to 23,270.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,130.0 resistance level could drive the index to 24,640.0

Summary

Signs of weakness in the external sector strengthen the case for a dovish ECB stance, which limits bond yield growth and supports real estate, infrastructure, and parts of the consumer sector. Overall, the trade balance report’s impact on the German stock market and the DE 40 index can be described as moderately negative for export-oriented and cyclical companies, while the background is relatively neutral or slightly supportive for sectors benefitting from softer financial conditions and a potentially weaker euro. The nearest downside target for the index could be 23,270.0.

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US President Donald Trump announced a cut to fentanyl-related tariffs on imports from China, lowering the rate from 20% to 10%, and the continued freeze of some of his reciprocal levies on Chinese goods, Bloomberg reported on late Tuesday.