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DE 40 forecast: the index enters a correction

Posted on: Jul 14 2026

The DE 40 stock index entered a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: Germany’s industrial production rose by 1.9% month-on-month in May
  • Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The publication of German industrial production data is a moderately positive signal for the DE 40 index. In May, the indicator rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.1%. Furthermore, output continued to rise following a revised increase of 0.2% in April. This significant improvement indicates that Germany’s industrial sector proved stronger than market participants had anticipated.

Since the DE 40 index includes the country’s largest publicly traded companies and represents the main part of German stock market capitalisation, improved macroeconomic indicators may support its price. In the short term, the news could boost demand for shares of companies whose financial results directly depend on industrial production, corporate investment, and export volumes.

Germany’s industrial production, month-on-month: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-mom

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index formed the nearest resistance level at 25,925.0, while the key support level is located near 24,570.0. Quotes entered a correction after hitting a new all-time high. At the same time, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. In this scenario, the nearest target for further upward movement is 26,530.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,570.0 support level could send the index down to 24,035.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,925.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 26,530.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 13 July 2026

Summary

Overall, the impact on the DE 40 should be assessed as positive, but not sufficient to trigger a sustained upward movement on its own. The strong outperformance versus the forecast may support the index and increase investor interest in German industrial stocks. Another positive factor is the 1.9% increase in new manufacturing orders in May, although part of this increase was driven by large orders in the transport engineering sector. At the same time, the further direction of the DE 40 will depend on the state of global trade. The nearest upside target remains 26,530.0.

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Options on leveraged ETFs: how investors actually use them

Posted on: Jul 08 2026

Leveraged ETFs are built to deliver a multiple of one trading day’s return, not a smooth multiple over weeks or months, and holding one too long can quietly work against an investor’s own thesis. This article looks at how options let investors hedge a broader position, define a holding period on purpose, or engage with these instruments more deliberately.

Leveraged ETFs are built for one trading day. Here’s how options let investors work with that reality instead of against it.

Leveraged ETFs have become a fixture on retail trading platforms. US-listed leveraged ETF assets have grown to roughly USD 198 billion, with the large majority held by retail investors rather than institutions (Source: Value The Markets, as of June 2026). For investors who already follow a volatile corner of the market – semiconductors, a single index, a sector rotation story – the appeal is easy to understand: amplified exposure without opening a margin account.

There’s a catch, though. These products are built to deliver a multiple of a single day’s return, not a multiple of the return over a month or a year. Holding one past that horizon can quietly work against an investor’s own thesis. This article walks through the main way options address that directly, hedging a broader position, then runs through a few other ways investors put these instruments to work.

Why leveraged ETFs aren’t built to be held

A leveraged ETF resets its exposure at the close of every session. If the underlying index falls 10% one day and rises 10% the next, a 3x leveraged ETF does not return to its starting value – it ends up lower, because each day’s move compounds on a different base than the day before. This effect, often called volatility decay, means a leveraged ETF’s return can diverge meaningfully from a simple multiple of the index the longer it is held, particularly in choppy, range-bound markets (Source: Britannica Money, as of June 2026).

That divergence is not theoretical. Over the five years to July 2026, IWM, the unleveraged Russell 2000 ETF, is roughly flat to slightly positive. TNA, its 3x leveraged counterpart tracking the same index, remains sharply negative over the same stretch, even after the small-cap index itself worked its way back toward break-even (Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026). The underlying index barely moved on net over five years; the leveraged version did not track that outcome.

IWM vs TNA, indexed return, July 2021 to July 2026 (base = 0%). The unleveraged Russell 2000 ETF ended the period roughly positive; its 3x leveraged counterpart remained deeply negative despite a full market cycle. Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Hedging a broader position

Thesis: An investor holding a basket of stocks tied to a volatile theme – semiconductors, for example – may want downside protection without liquidating the position. Buying puts directly on each individual holding can be expensive and impractical across many names.

Mechanics: Because a leveraged ETF already carries built-in sensitivity to its underlying index, a put option on the leveraged ETF can offset a proportionally larger notional swing elsewhere in the portfolio, using fewer contracts and less capital tied up in premium than an equivalent hedge built directly on the unlevered holdings. The scale of that sensitivity shows up clearly in past drawdowns: during the semiconductor selloff into October 2022, SOXL fell approximately 84% from its July 2021 base at the trough, versus roughly 34% for SOXX, the unleveraged semiconductor index ETF it tracks (Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026).

SOXX vs SOXL, indexed return, July 2021 to July 2026 (base = 0%). The leveraged ETF’s drawdown into October 2022 ran well beyond its unleveraged counterpart’s; the same amplification that produces sharper declines also produces sharper rallies. Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

Choosing strike, expiry, and size

  • Strike: closer to the money costs more but starts offsetting losses sooner; further out of the money is cheaper, but only pays off once the decline is already severe.
  • Expiry: match it to how long the exposure actually lasts, not a round-number default. A hedge that expires before the risk it covers is not a hedge.
  • Size: think in delta-adjusted notional, not premium budget. Check the live chain for the leveraged ETF’s current delta to size the exact ratio.

Strategy insight – capital efficiency versus premium cost. The benefit of this approach is capital efficiency: less money tied up for a given amount of offsetting exposure. The risk is that implied volatility on leveraged ETFs tends to run structurally higher than on the unlevered index, so the hedge itself may cost more per unit of protection, even if less capital is required overall.

In our view, the same amplification that makes a leveraged ETF fall further in a selloff could also work in a put buyer’s favour, since a larger move is exactly what a long put is built to capture, and rising implied volatility during that kind of move could add a further, separate source of gain. This is a hypothesis, not a rule: the same elevated IV also makes the put pricier to buy and often comes with wider bid-ask spreads, time decay works against the position throughout, and a violent single trough, like October 2022, is no guarantee a sustained decline follows it.

Hedging a broader position with a leveraged ETF put. Maximum loss is limited to the premium paid; protection increases as the ETF falls. Source: Saxo, as of July 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

A few other ways options on leveraged ETFs get used

Hedging is not the only angle. A handful of others come up often enough to be worth a short mention:

  • Defining a holding period on purpose. A leveraged ETF resets daily; holding the shares for several weeks fights that design. A call or put with a stated expiry sets the time horizon and the maximum loss upfront, though time decay still applies for as long as the position runs.
  • Reaching otherwise-closed markets. Most US-domiciled leveraged ETFs lack a PRIIPs Key Information Document, which blocks EU investors from buying the fund directly (Source: Regulation (EU) 1286/2014; Britannica Money, as of June 2026). Listed options on the same ETF are a separate instrument, sometimes still accessible even where the fund itself is not, though the underlying decay risk remains regardless.
  • Adding convex upside without full ownership. A call option offers a smaller, defined-risk way to participate in an amplified move than committing the full capital a leveraged ETF position would require, though the premium is lost in full if the move doesn’t arrive before expiry.

Common leveraged ETFs with listed options

None of the above is specific to a single instrument – any leveraged ETF with listed options works structurally the same way. These are some of the more widely traded examples, spanning different sectors and index exposures:

  • SOXL (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the semiconductor sector; used as the illustrative example throughout this article.
  • UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) – 3x daily exposure to the S&P 500.
  • SSO (ProShares Ultra S&P 500) – 2x daily exposure to the S&P 500, a lower-leverage alternative to UPRO on the same index.
  • TNA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the Russell 2000 small-cap index.
  • FAS (Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the financial sector.
  • TECL (Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares) – 3x daily exposure to the technology sector.

Leveraged exposure also exists on individual mega-cap technology names, the so-called Magnificent Seven, such as GraniteShares’ 2x long Nvidia product (NVDL) and Direxion’s 2x long Tesla product (TSLL); structure and availability vary by issuer and are worth confirming directly.

Liquidity varies sharply across this list, and where it’s thin, bid-ask spreads widen quickly, which can erode profitability before a position even moves. Checking the live option chain for volume and spread, rather than assuming one leveraged ETF behaves like another, remains the first step regardless of which one is involved.

Before placing the trade, check:

  • Bid/ask spreads – wide spreads on leveraged ETF options can eliminate the theoretical edge at entry
  • Volume and open interest – confirm liquidity at the selected strike and expiry before sizing the position
  • IV relative to realised volatility – leveraged ETFs can show implied volatility well above 100% during periods of stress (illustrative range; always verify current IV in the live option chain before evaluating a position), and it is worth checking whether the options market is pricing more movement than the ETF has actually been delivering, or less
  • Timing the purchase – protection is generally cheaper to buy when volatility is low, and on a green day when puts are already discounted, than after a selloff has already pushed implied volatility higher
  • Exit plan – define it before entering, especially for positions intended to run several weeks

Assignment risk note: Leveraged ETF options are typically American-style, meaning short legs can be assigned before expiry if they move in the money. As the buyer of a put or call, there is no assignment risk – only the seller of an option faces this.

Final thoughts

Leveraged ETFs were not designed to be held, and options on them work best when they respect that design rather than fight it. Used as a hedge, they let an investor offset risk elsewhere in the portfolio with less capital tied up. Used in the other ways above, from defining a holding period to reaching an otherwise-closed market, they open up angles the ETF itself does not offer on its own.

None of these turn a leveraged ETF into a long-term holding, and none of them remove the underlying volatility decay. What they offer instead is a more deliberate way to engage with a genuinely volatile corner of the market, with the risk defined before the position is opened, not after.

The author does not hold positions in any of the instruments mentioned in this article.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
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  • Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management
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  • Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know
  • Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment
  • Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage
  • Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet
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Options Brief - Back from the holiday, rally cools - 6 July 2026

Posted on: Jul 07 2026

US markets reopen after Friday's Independence Day holiday to find Europe at record highs and Korea's chipmakers extending their rebound, though the momentum is already cooling. With no new US session to price and a landmark SK Hynix ADR listing landing this week, the brief looks at what the options market is actually pricing for today.

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL  |  VIX 15.81  |  TERM: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: ELEVATED (150.02)  |  VIX FUTURES: 17.60

  • Markets reopen to a cooling handoff: US cash equities and listed options were shut Friday for the observed Independence Day holiday. Europe closed at record highs and South Korea's chipmakers extended their rebound, but the tech bounce is already losing steam alongside a firmer dollar heading into Monday.
  • Korea's chipmakers kept rising Friday: the Kospi jumped 5.8% to 8,088, extending its rebound from Thursday's 7.9% plunge, with SK Hynix up 10.9% and Samsung Electronics up 8.2% on renewed AI-chip optimism.

Headline driver

Markets reopen today after Friday's US holiday closure to a mixed handoff: European equities closed at record highs and South Korea's chipmakers extended their rebound from Thursday's rout, but the tech bounce is cooling into Monday's session alongside a firmer dollar. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are now the week's main catalyst, with Q2 earnings season opening Friday. Full macro rundown in Saxo's Market Quick Take, 6 July 2026.

Market snapshot, Friday 3 July 2026 close (Europe/Asia); US markets closed

  • Europe closed at record highs Friday: the Euro STOXX 50 rose 0.8% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.7% to 653, helped by thinner US-holiday trading. ASML rose 3.6% and Infineon 1.4% as AI-linked tech recovered, Siemens added 2.6% on a broker upgrade, and Deutsche Bank gained 1.6%.
  • Asia extended its rebound Friday: the Kospi rose 5.8% to 8,088, recovering from Thursday's 7.9% plunge, with SK Hynix up 10.9% and Samsung Electronics up 8.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.3% to 23,350, helped by a 6.5% gain in BYD.
  • US cash equities and listed options stayed shut Friday for the observed Independence Day holiday; Thursday, 2 July remains the last confirmed US close (source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 6 July 2026).
  • Market regime (rules based read): Low-volatility bull, VIX 15.8, 20-day realised vol 17.1% (rising), S&P 500 +1.2% above its 50-day moving average.

Volatility surface – 6 July 2026, approx. 07:20 CET

VIX term structure

  • VIX spot 15.81 (-2.11%)
  • VIX1D 13.22 (+1.54%) · VIX9D 12.37 (-5.86%)
  • VIX3M 19.04 · VIX6M 21.50 · VIX1Y 23.16, an upward-sloping curve overall despite a small front-end inversion between VIX1D and VIX9D

VIX futures

  • Front-month VIX futures 17.60 (-1.69%), a premium to spot that keeps the curve in contango
  • Second-month VIX futures 18.73 (-1.23%)

Skew and correlation

  • CBOE SKEW 150.02 (-3.10%), still in an elevated zone despite Friday's rally abroad
  • COR3M 8.18 (-0.85%)
  • DSPX 44.80 (+1.04%)

Other measures

  • VVIX 88.80 (-0.27%) · MOVE 65.40 (-4.62%)
  • VXN 27.98 (+1.05%)
  • GVZ 26.00 (-4.13%)

What the market is pricing

  • Friday's holiday closure means there is no fresh US close to react to, and no intraday session has happened yet today either. At the money straddles for the SPX imply an expected move of about 45 points (0.60%) for today's expiry and 94 points (1.25%) through Friday 10 July, a moderate range for the four-day gap since Thursday's close.
  • FOMC minutes are the real trigger. The week ahead is otherwise macro-light. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the main catalyst, Thursday brings jobless claims, and Q2 earnings season opens Friday with Delta Air Lines. SK Hynix's own listing and chipmaker earnings remain a wildcard.
  • Tail-risk demand hasn't gone away. SKEW stayed elevated at 150.02 even as Europe and Asia rallied into the weekend, so demand for far out-of-the-money downside protection held despite the bounce.
  • Watch the dollar-yen cross. USDJPY rose 0.4% to around 161.95 in early Monday trading, partly reversing Thursday's post-jobs-report softness, with Goldman Sachs lifting its USDJPY target to 165 on higher-for-longer US yields. Japanese intervention risk is back in view.

Special this week: SK Hynix’s Nasdaq ADR listing

SK Hynix is set to list American depositary receipts on the Nasdaq under the ticker SKHY as soon as Friday, 10 July, targeting roughly $29.6 billion raised. That would make it the largest ADR listing in market history, ahead of Alibaba’s $21.8 billion New York debut in 2014. Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are lead underwriters, and proceeds are earmarked for memory-capacity expansion, including a new Yongin fab and advanced packaging lines. SK Hynix itself has flagged the date as tentative and subject to change.

Options for SKHY: none exist yet, since SKHY isn’t trading. Standardized options on a newly listed issue typically follow only once it clears exchange criteria on public float and shareholder count, a process that plays out over weeks rather than days, and nothing has been scheduled yet. ProShares has also filed for a 2x leveraged single-stock ETF on SKHY (ticker SKHU), and its own FAQ gives the same answer on timing: the underlying has to trade first, and any options listing on either name follows the options exchanges’ standard criteria after that. Worth revisiting once SKHY has a few sessions on the tape, and a candidate for a dedicated piece later this week.

Conclusion

Europe’s record close and Korea’s extended chip rebound suggest Friday’s risk-on mood carried through the long weekend, but a cooling tech bounce and a firmer dollar both hint that conviction is thinner than the index-level gains suggest. With no new US session to confirm or deny that read, options positioning is the only real gauge of today: a roughly 0.60% expected move that says the desk isn’t bracing for a violent open, even with FOMC minutes, Q2 earnings season and a landmark ADR listing all landing this week.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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The US consumer is "stressed" but spending on cats is "on fire" according to General Mills

Posted on: Jul 04 2026

Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather than hoping for a turn.

The core messages is that they don't assume any improvement.

Dana McNabb (COO) laid it out directly: "What we are anticipating is that as we go into this new fiscal year, the consumer is going to continue to be pressured. And we do expect to see them continue to change their behavior because of that, being more deliberate in how and where they shop, buying more on promotion and less on everyday prices, making trade-offs between pack sizes and channels, all with value at the forefront."

CEO Jeff Harmening reinforced it twice: "we're not anticipating an improved consumer environment or an improved category environment. We're going to make our own success this year." And later: "I think it's really important to reiterate, which I think I've done, but to reiterate that we're not expecting that environment to improve."

There have been good indications on US aggregate spending lately but they're tilted towards more-wealthy consumers while General Mills has better insight into the middle and lower-end market. They have been struggling for years as consumers switch to store brands. After the pandemic, they tried to push pricing on their flagship brands like Cheerios and consumers balked, leading to a rout in the shares.

The company rallied after earnings this week reported EPS of 95-cents compared to the 80-cent consensus. Revenue turned around, rising 1% year-over-year (though guided flat for FY2027).

After trying to push on pricing, the company pivoted and lowered prices to fight for volume with store brands.

In terms of pricing, the company said its inflation outlook is 4-5% on assumptions of oil near $100 but even with oil falling, they expect it to be at the lower part of the band.

On the K-shaped economy specifically, McNabb said:

"We did see the middle lower income households eat a little bit more at-home and spend a little bit more on staples, so think cooking from home, but nothing significant." At-home eating held "pretty stable... at 86%."

She used the term outright: "there is a portion of the economy in this K economy that will spend more." The playbook is opening price points and packaging innovation for the low end, large value packs for big families, and premium functional benefits for the top: "making sure that we understand how stressed the consumer is going into this fiscal year that we don't take that for granted."

One booming part of their business? People forgoing children and spending their money on cats.

"Our humanization trend in pet will continue and cats are on fire, cat growth is on fire," McNabb said.

My overall take is that companies are no longer modeling a recovery, and instead they're building plans that assume the stress is permanent.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.