BOJ Tankan Q2 2025: Large Manufacturing Index 13 (vs. expected 10)

BOJ Tankan Q2 2025:

Bank of Japan Tankan Survey – June 2025 Highlights

Business Conditions (Actual vs Reuters Poll):

• Large Manufacturers (June): +13 (forecast: +10). +13 is the highest since December last year.

• Large Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +12 (forecast: +9)

• Large Non-Manufacturers (June): +34 (forecast: +34) +34 is the lowest since December last year

• Large Non-Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +27 (forecast: +29)

• Small Manufacturers (June): +1 (forecast: -1)

• Small Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): -2 (forecast: -3)

• Small Non-Manufacturers (June): +15 (forecast: +15)

• Small Non-Manufacturers Outlook (Sept): +9 (forecast: +9)

Currency Assumptions (FY2025/26):

• All Firms – Euro: ¥157.79

• All Firms – USD: ¥145.72

• Large Manufacturers – USD: ¥145.87

Other Indicators:

• All Firms Employment Index (June): -35

• All Firms Financial Conditions Index (June): +11 (vs March: +10)

• Large Manufacturers' Production Capacity Index (June): +2 (vs March: +3)

• Recurring Profits – Large Manufacturers (FY2025/26): -8.4%

• Capex Outlook (FY2025/26):

  • Large Firms: +11.5% (forecast: +10.0%)

  • Small Firms: -5.6% (forecast: -7.2%)

BoJ Tankan – Corporate Price Expectations (June 2025):

• 1-Year Inflation Outlook: Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% over the next year (previous survey: +2.5%)

• 3-Year Inflation Outlook: Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% annually over the next three years (unchanged from previous survey)

• 5-Year Inflation Outlook: Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.3% annually over the next five years (unchanged from previous survey)

more to come

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Earlier preview:

• The Bank of Japan Tankan report is due soon, here are the Reuters results as a preview

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda