Key points:
- Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 24 March 2026.
- In FX, the Middle East conflict continued to underpin the dollar, albeit at a slower pace, driven by a collapse in the EUR long
- Commodities saw another week of strong buying, led by energy and grains, despite an overall decline in the BCOM index as precious metals slumped
- Interestingly, the double-digit slump in gold, silver, and platinum only triggered a limited reaction with long liquidation the main focus while short sellers stayed away.
Forex:
The Middle East conflict continued to underpin the dollar, albeit at a slower pace in the latest reporting week to last Tuesday, 24 March. While positioning flows turned more mixed and less one-sided, the gross dollar long versus eight IMM futures still rose to USD 7.53 billion, the highest level since early December. Speculators sold the euro for a sixth consecutive week. Since early February, the net long has collapsed from 180,000 contracts (EUR 22.5 billion equivalent) to a one-year low of 9,279 contracts (EUR 1.2 billion equivalent), highlighting a sharp reversal in sentiment. Elsewhere, selling of CHF, CAD, and NZD was only partly offset by renewed demand for JPY, GBP, and MXN. In USDJPY, traders modestly reduced their JPY net short from a 20-month high, as intervention risk increased with the pair approaching 160. On Friday, USDJPY closed at 160.30, despite warnings from Japan’s finance minister that “bold actions” could be taken to counter excessive currency moves. Meanwhile, the AUD long continued to grind higher, reaching an 8½-year high at 70,872 contracts (USD 4.9 billion equivalent).
Commodities
The latest COT report, covering the week to Tuesday, 24 March, showed another week of strong buying despite a 2.1% setback in the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The decline was driven primarily by heavy losses in precious and industrial metals, while energy, grains, and softs all recorded gains.
The overall net long across the 25 major futures contracts tracked rose to 1.8 million contracts—a four-year high—representing a nominal value of USD 175 billion. Of this, USD 80 billion is concentrated in energy, a reduced USD 50 billion in metals, and USD 27 billion in grains, with the balance spread across softs and livestock.
Beyond the developments in energy and grains highlighted below, it is notable that the double-digit slump in gold, silver, and platinum has had only a limited impact on positioning. There has been little appetite for fresh short selling, indicating the correction has so far been driven by long liquidation rather than a broader shift in sentiment. As the Middle East war extends to a fifth week, markets appear to be transitioning from an inflation shock caused by surging energy prices - previously weighing on bonds and gold - to a more pronounced growth shock. This shift is increasingly pressuring equities, while beginning to lend support to both bonds and gold as investors reassess the balance between inflation risks and slowing economic activity. In energy, managed money reduced its net long in Brent by 5% to 407,000 contracts, while modest buying was seen across the two WTI contracts. The pullback in Brent positioning from an eight-year high followed a temporary price setback early in the week, after Trump delayed potential strikes and signalled talks with Iran—comments that were subsequently denied by Tehran.
Outside energy, the grains sector has staged a strong revival. This move is being driven by a combination of deteriorating US winter wheat conditions—following prolonged heat and drought across the Plains—and escalating geopolitical disruption. The Iran war has impeded both energy flows and fertilizer trade, prompting farmers globally to secure critical inputs.
Year-to-date, a 12% gain in the Bloomberg Grains Subindex has triggered a covering of entrenched short positions in wheat, while long positions in corn, soybean meal, and soybean oil have climbed to fresh 12-month highs. This has driven a sharp reversal in managed money positioning across six key contracts—from a net short of 258,000 in late January to a four-year high net long of 720,000 in the latest reporting week.
At the same time, the surge in input costs—particularly diesel and fertilizers—raises the risk of reduced planting or lower yields, increasing the likelihood of tighter supply and higher global food prices.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.
Published by:
Isabella