The DE 40 stock index is testing the lower boundary of its medium-term sideways channel. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.
DE 40 forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: Germany’s trade balance for September 2025 stood at 15.3 billion EUR
- Market impact: the data creates a mixed background for the German stock market
DE 40 fundamental analysis
The latest German trade balance data showed a surplus of 15.3 billion EUR, compared with a forecast of 16.7 billion and a previous reading of 16.9 billion. Although the surplus remains, its volume has declined and came in below market expectations. For the German economy, where the export of capital goods, automobiles, and chemicals is a key GDP driver, this signals cooling external demand or a faster rise in imports. For the stock market, it implies that consensus forecasts for revenues and margins of export-oriented companies may be revised downwards.
For the DE 40 index, this could trigger a mildly negative reaction in the short term, primarily through valuation adjustments in the automotive, industrial, and chemical sectors, which represent a significant portion of the index and are sensitive to global trade dynamics. A weaker trade balance increases the likelihood that GDP growth will remain moderate and that the industrial recovery will take longer, limiting the potential for expansion of P/E multiples in cyclical industries.
Germany’s balance of trade: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-tradeDE 40 technical analysis
For the DE 40 index, the key resistance level is located near 24,130.0, while a new support level has formed at 23,675.0. The prevailing trend is downward, and its duration remains uncertain. The next downside target is 23,270.0.
The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:
- Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,675.0 support level could send the index to 23,270.0
- Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,130.0 resistance level could drive the index to 24,640.0
Summary
Signs of weakness in the external sector strengthen the case for a dovish ECB stance, which limits bond yield growth and supports real estate, infrastructure, and parts of the consumer sector. Overall, the trade balance report’s impact on the German stock market and the DE 40 index can be described as moderately negative for export-oriented and cyclical companies, while the background is relatively neutral or slightly supportive for sectors benefitting from softer financial conditions and a potentially weaker euro. The nearest downside target for the index could be 23,270.0.
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Published by:
Jason