Will GBP/USD Break Lower After 1.3800 Rejection?

Introduction to GBP/USD

The GBP/USD currency pair, also known as “Cable,” represents the exchange rate between the British Pound Sterling and the US Dollar. This is one of the most traded pairs in the Forex market and is highly sensitive to both UK and US economic data releases. Traders closely monitor GBP/USD because it reflects not only currency movements but also the broader relationship between the British and American economies. With its volatility and liquidity, GBP/USD offers significant opportunities for both short-term and long-term traders.

GBPUSD Market Overview

In today’s session, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3412, following recent downside pressure after touching the 1.3800 resistance level earlier in July. The market sentiment for the British Pound has been influenced by consumer confidence data from NIQ, which remains below optimistic levels, hinting at cautious spending patterns in the UK economy. Looking ahead, traders are keeping a close eye on the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, could create notable volatility for the US Dollar. Additionally, speeches from Fed members Susan Collins and Beth Hammack have the potential to provide hints regarding future monetary policy, particularly about interest rates. Over the next two days, GBP USD is expected to remain highly reactive to global economic outlook discussions and investor sentiment surrounding inflation and growth in both the UK and the US.

GBP-USD Technical Analysis

On the daily timeframe, GBP-USD has shown a bullish structure since the beginning of 2025, but recent price action indicates a potential reversal. After peaking near 1.3800, the pair has retraced to 1.3415, moving toward the middle of its price channel. The ZigZag indicator shows the previous leg was bullish, but with its lagging nature, the recent decline hints at the early stages of a bearish formation. The Aroon indicator suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the Aroon Up (orange) trending downward while the Aroon Down (blue) flattens and could turn higher. Meanwhile, the Vortex Indicator shows VI+ above VI- but converging rapidly, signaling a possible bearish crossover if momentum continues to shift. Strong support lies near 1.3050, while resistance remains at 1.3800, and traders should watch reactions around the 1.3350–1.3400 zone to gauge whether bearish continuation develops or a rebound occurs.

Final Words about GBP vs USD

The overall outlook for GBP USD remains cautious in the near term. While the pair has enjoyed an extended bullish run earlier this year, recent weakness near the 1.3800 resistance suggests the possibility of a trend reversal. With several high-impact speeches from Federal Reserve officials at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the US Dollar could strengthen further if policymakers adopt a hawkish stance. On the UK side, subdued consumer confidence may limit upside momentum for the Pound. Traders should carefully monitor upcoming support and resistance levels, use momentum indicators for confirmation, and prepare for increased volatility during major announcements.

Disclaimer: This GBPUSD analysis, provided by Unitedpips, is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Always conduct your own Forex analysis before making any trading decisions.