This weekly technical analysis highlights the key chart patterns and levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast market moves for the upcoming week (4-8 August 2025).
Major technical levels to watch this week
- EURUSD: Support: 1.1390, 1.1355. Resistance: 1.1580, 1.1620
- USDJPY: Support: 146.50, 144.40. Resistance: 149.80, 151.00
- GBPUSD: Support: 1.3144, 1.2944. Resistance: 1.3370, 1.3580
- AUDUSD: Support: 0.6400, 0.6277. Resistance: 0.6515, 0.6550
- USDCAD: Support: 1.3715, 1.3660. Resistance: 1.3800, 1.3900
- Gold: Support: 3,320, 3,250. Resistance: 3,385, 3,440
- Brent: Support: 68.60, 66.50. Resistance: 72.60, 76.50
EURUSD forecast
Fundamentally, the euro remains under pressure amid persistent recession risks in the eurozone and subdued inflation data. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve maintains a cautious tone, refraining from signalling a sharp policy easing, which supports the dollar.
An additional factor is the US tariffs on the EU and ongoing uncertainty regarding future transatlantic trade relations, which negatively affect the eurozone’s economic recovery outlook.
In the short term, pressure on the euro intensifies due to expectations of weak business activity data from Germany and France. The strong dollar, supported by a stable US labour market and high interest rates, remains a key fundamental obstacle to the pair's growth.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the daily EURUSD chart, the market continues forming the first downward wave. The local target at 1.1390 has been reached, after which a corrective wave developed and already tested 1.1580. This week, another upward move within this correction remains possible, targeting 1.1620 – the SMA50 lies here and serves as important resistance. Afterwards, a renewed downward wave is expected with the first target at 1.1355, where a local correction back to 1.1580 may occur before the decline continues.
EURUSD forecast scenarios
Base (bearish):
After completing the current correction, the downward wave is expected to continue towards 1.1355, with a potential move towards 1.1200 in the medium term.
Alternative (bullish):
If the market forms a consolidation range above 1.1580 and breaks out upwards, the correction may extend towards 1.1722, where the upper boundary of the current channel lies.
USDJPY forecast
Fundamentally, the USDJPY pair is supported by the ongoing interest rate differential between the US and Japan. The Bank of Japan continues to follow a dovish policy, despite signals of a possible yield curve adjustment, while the Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated. This sustains demand for the dollar against the yen.
Additional support comes from a generally strong US dollar, driven by expectations of robust US data and lower geopolitical risks in Asia, which reduces the yen’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the daily chart, the USDJPY pair has reached the third wave target at 150.90. A correction phase is now underway, initially targeting 146.50, where local support may form.
A deeper pullback towards 144.40 is possible – this level coincides with the SMA50, which may serve as key support.
Afterwards, a new growth wave is expected, targeting 153.00. Reaching this area would signal the end of the correction.
Once that target is hit, the likelihood of a downward move towards 140.00 becomes possible.
USDJPY forecast scenarios
Bullish scenario (base):
If the correction ends at or above 146.50, a new growth wave could target 149.80, 151.00, and eventually 153.00 – the fifth wave’s target zone.
Bearish scenario (alternative):
A confident breakout below 144.40 with increasing volume could trigger a decline towards 142.50 and 140.00, where the market might seek a new balance.
GBPUSD forecast
The fundamental background for the GBPUSD pair remains mixed. On one hand, markets see a high likelihood that the Bank of England will hold rates steady after the recent cooling in UK inflation. The pound faces additional pressure from weak GDP growth and continued uncertainty in retail consumption.
On the other hand, the US dollar could experience fluctuations ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday and the CPI index, set to be released next week. Markets will closely watch Fed rhetoric, with any dovish tilt likely to weaken the dollar.
Geopolitical risks also persist, with escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East potentially increasing volatility, especially in USD pairs.
GBPUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, the GBPUSD pair broke below the lower boundary of a consolidation range and reached the third wave target at 1.3144. A fourth corrective wave is now expected, possibly returning to 1.3370 (weekly pivot point – testing from below), which previously acted as support and now stands as resistance.
While the price trades below the SMA50, the bearish scenario dominates. Its confirmation would be a renewed drop targeting 1.2944 (fifth wave target). If extended, the move may reach 1.2560. A breakout above 1.3580-1.3600 would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a new uptrend with targets near 1.3800-1.4000.
GBPUSD forecast scenarios
Bearish scenario (base):
- Correction ends at 1.3370
- The fifth downward wave develops with targets at:
- 1.2944
- (optionally) 1.2560
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A consolidation above 1.3600 would open the potential for growth towards:
- 1.3800
- 1.4000, then 1.4160 on strong momentum
AUDUSD forecast
The Australian dollar remains under pressure amid weakening demand for commodities and expectations that the RBA will maintain its dovish policy. Slowing growth in China and intensifying trade rhetoric between the US and China also support the US dollar. Strong US labour market data and persistent inflation in July strengthen the case for a stronger dollar. The market will closely monitor Fed commentary and the release of Australia’s GDP and China’s PMI figures.
AUDUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, the AUDUSD pair is forming a downward wave structure with the current target at 0.6400. The price hit the target of the third downward structure, and in the coming week, a corrective phase is expected towards the 0.6515 area, where the SMA50 passes – a potential resistance zone. A renewed decline may then follow, targeting 0.6277 for the third wave. After this, the fourth corrective wave could develop with a return to 0.6400. The main scenario anticipates the development of a fifth downward wave towards 0.6170.
An alternative scenario suggests recovery above 0.6550, which would open the way for growth towards 0.6670 and further to 0.6820-0.6969 amid sustained demand for risk assets.
AUDUSD forecast scenarios
Bearish scenario (base case):
A consolidation below 0.6500 confirms the end of the correction and opens the potential for downside targets:
- 0.6400 – first target
- 0.6277 – local target
- 0.6170 – main target within the downward wave
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A strong consolidation above 0.6550 would open new upside targets:
- 0.6670 – intermediate resistance level
- 0.6820 – local growth target
- 0.6969 – major target (extended 5th wave)
USDCAD forecast
The Canadian dollar remains under pressure amid mixed signals from the oil market and expectations of a Bank of Canada rate cut in the autumn. Canada's economic indicators show signs of slowing, while the US dollar remains resilient thanks to strong labour market data and persistent inflation expectations. The oil market remains volatile, exerting only limited influence on the CAD.
USDCAD technical analysis
On the daily chart, USDCAD has confidently broken above the 1.3715 level (weekly pivot point) and reached the third wave target at 1.3878. In the short term, a corrective move is expected towards the 1.3715-1.3660 range, where the fourth wave may complete. Then, with support from the SMA50, the fifth growth wave may develop, aiming for 1.3900.
The long-term structure still leans towards a neutral-to-bearish bias. The current growth is viewed as a correction within a broader downtrend. After the upward movement, a new downward wave is expected, with a target at 1.3500.
USDCAD forecast scenarios
Bearish scenario (base case):
If the fifth wave completes at 1.3900, pressure on the pair is likely to increase.
Downside targets:
- 1.3700 – first target
- 1.3800 – second target
- 1.3600 – third target
- 1.3700 – fourth target
- 1.3500 – main target (within the third wave from 1.4540)
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A solid consolidation above 1.3800 and a breakout above 1.3900 may extend the correction towards 1.4020 (top of the correction structure). In this case, the next downside target would shift to 1.3255.
XAUUSD forecast
The gold market remains under pressure from conflicting factors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and East Asia and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US elections maintain demand for safe-haven assets.
However, the strength of the US dollar, supported by robust reports and expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, limits gold’s upside potential. Comments from Federal Reserve officials, especially in light of the latest inflation reports, continue to influence XAUUSD volatility in the short term.
Any strengthening of hawkish rhetoric from the Fed may add to pressure on gold, accelerating a technical correction.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the daily chart, a symmetrical triangle continues to form around the 3,330 level – a classic pattern of uncertainty that often precedes a strong directional breakout.
A breakout below 3,320 would confirm the end of the consolidation phase and trigger a wave of decline targeting the 3,250-3,240 area. If pressure intensifies, the decline could extend to 3,060-3,050 – a technically significant zone marking the lower boundary of the previous major correction.
If the price returns above 3,385 and consolidates there, the scenario would shift to bullish with potential for growth up to the 3,500-3,535 area.
XAUUSD forecast scenarios
Bearish scenario (base case):
A breakout and consolidation below 3,320 confirms the correction scenario with downside targets:
- 3,250 – first target
- 3,060-3,050 – key technical correction zone
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A sustained rise above 3,385 would open the door for an upward wave with targets at:
- 3,440
- 3,500 – the May key resistance level
- 3,535 – extended fifth wave (the impulse high)
Brent forecast
The oil market maintains a moderately positive tone despite signs of local overbought conditions. Prices are supported by the following factors:
- Strict OPEC+ discipline on output cuts, despite pressure from consumers
- Recovery in fuel demand in China and India
- Decline in US commercial crude inventories, as reflected in the latest EIA report
However, risk factors persist. The strengthening US dollar and high interest rates limit investment interest in commodity assets. Additional uncertainty arises from the potential slowdown in US economic growth during the second half of the year, especially amid the introduction of trade barriers.
The geopolitical factor has intensified following Donald Trump’s statement on redeploying nuclear submarines near Russia’s borders, which could disrupt logistics routes and trigger a sharp spike in oil prices in the event of escalation.
Brent technical analysis
On the daily chart, Brent crude broke above a consolidation range (around 68.60) and formed the first growth wave within the trend's fifth wave, reaching the 76.50 target. A downward corrective move is expected in the coming week, targeting 68.60 – an area of support and the SMA50 line. After the correction ends, growth is likely to resume within the third wave, aiming for 76.50 and subsequently the key target at 79.40.
Brent forecast scenarios
Bullish scenario (base case):
The 68.60 support level remains crucial for the continuation of the uptrend with upside targets at:
- 76.50 – local target
- 79.40 – main target of the current growth wave
Bearish scenario (alternative):
A breakout and consolidation below 66.50 would signal a deeper correction with downside targets at:
- 64.00 – key support level
- 62.00 – May consolidation low